Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 271924
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
324 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

RAINS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WILL END TOWARD MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...THEN THE REGION WILL SEE DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY.  THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY.

SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN SHOULD DRY OUT BY MID WEEK...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD...MAINLY 75 TO 80 INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOW ENE
AND TAKE THE RAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER OUT OF THE REGION.  THEN
ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

BACK EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE WAS SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST.  IT WILL
CONTINUE TO GIVE RAIN TO AREAS EAST OF A AMN-BTL LINE INTO THIS
EVENING.  HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SOME AREAS IN JACKSON COUNTY SHOULD PICK ANOTHER QUARTER INCH.
RADAR HAS BEEN OVER-ESTIMATING RAINFALL...MOST REPORTS HAVE BEEN
1.50 INCHES OR LESS.  THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN COULD PUSH LOCAL ACCUMS
TOWARD 2 INCHES IN PARTS OF INGHAM AND JACKSON COUNTIES BEFORE IT
FINALLY WINDS DOWN.  IT WILL BE QUIET LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
SURFACE RIDGING MOVES IN AND WINDS CALM DOWN.

ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN MOVES IN MAINLY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL BE ANOTHER STACKED UPPER
LOW...IN THIS FALL-LIKE PATTERN...THAT MOVES SE INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL BE ANOTHER SLOW MOVER THAT
WILL PRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES.  HOWEVER THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT TAP AS MUCH GULF MOISTURE...SO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN
IS NOT EXPECTED.  THE LOW PASSES DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA MONDAY
EVENING...BRINGING THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WE WILL ALSO HAVE A WEAK UPPER JETLET OVERHEAD MONDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE PCPN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.  WOULD EXPECT
MOST AREAS PICKING UP AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN FROM THIS
SYSTEM...BUT MONDAY AFTERNOON/S THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING LOCALLY
HEAVIER RAINS.  WE ARE NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...AGAIN MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIED FOR SUMMER DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD ACROSS THE CONUS WITH UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATING THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS MEANS CONTINUED COOLER THAN NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A COUPLE CHANCES OF RAIN...THE FIRST ON TUESDAY AS A
SFC LOW MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY...WITH RAIN DEPARTING BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS ALSO MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED BY SOME
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS DOWN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH
RELOADS THE UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH AND BRINGS ANOTHER SFC LOW INTO
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE
SOME CEILINGS IN THE 2000 TO 300 FOOT RANGE AND VISIBILITY AROUND
3 TO 5 MILES THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN SOUTH AND
EAST OF GRR. NORTH WINDS WILL GUST OVER 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DECREASING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY 06Z
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF SOUTH HAVEN WILL REMAIN ROUGH WITH WAVES AT 2-
4 FEET DUE TO THE NORTHERNLY FETCH.  THIS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE
MODERATE SWIMMING HAZARDS THERE THIS EVENING.  WINDS AND WAVES WILL
DROP OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.  EXPECT A NICE DAY ON THE LAKE SUNDAY...
THEN THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND LINGERS
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT AS RUNOFF OF RAINFALL MAKES
ITS WAY THROUGH THE RIVER SYSTEM. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE A HALF INCH IN MOST AREAS WITH UP TO
AN INCH AND A HALF IN THE SOUTH. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED... BUT MINOR FLOODING ALONG RIVERS AND IN LOW-LYING AREAS
MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...JK


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