Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 031733
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
133 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TUESDAY
MAINLY EAST OF US 131. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL BE
FEATURED FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK...ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING BASED ON A FEW
SPOTTER REPORTS AND OCCASIONAL AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS DIPPING DOWN
BELOW A MILE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY IS FUNNELING IN NW FLOW AND CAA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. WINDS LOOK TO
HOLD UP THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH SOME GUSTS ONCE AGAIN OF 20-30
MPH. ALSO...THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE 5K-10K FT
LAYER TO SUPPORT A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TODAY
AND TOMORROW. THE HI-RES MODELS ARE SUPPORTING THIS AND SO DOES
THE ECMWF. H850 TEMPS OF 10-12C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

OTHER THAN THIS...A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT FOG ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING WITH DEW POINTS STILL HANGING UP AROUND 60F AND WINDS
GOING CALM. DID NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST GIVEN WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND APPEARS RATHER
QUIET.  NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD DOMINATE WHICH WOULD KEEP US
COOL...BUT THIS BECOMES MORE ZONAL INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH MAY SIGNAL
A SLIGHT WARM UP.

ONLY CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD APPEARS TO COME ON
THURSDAY.  A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE SET UP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK ALONG THE FRONT.  AREAS
SOUTH OF I-96 STAND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE.

OTHERWISE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES SUPPLYING MICHIGAN WITH A DRY EASTERLY FLOW.  THE MODELS
ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT IT APPEARS THIS
HIGH MOVES EAST AND WE BEGIN TO WARM.  FOR NOW KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN TEMPS AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH 00Z. SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 4000
FT AGL WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 20 KT WERE BEING REPORTED AT SOME LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT WINDS AND GUSTS TO SUBSIDE DURING THE 00-01Z TIMEFRAME.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

SCA WILL BE SET TO EXPIRE AT 8AM AND THAT STILL LOOKS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-3/2-4 FEET
DEPENDING ON THE NSH ZONE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGED FROM 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH WITH THE
STORMS LAST NIGHT. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT
RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOVING
SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...HOVING
MARINE...HOVING



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