Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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000
FXUS63 KGRR 212342
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
742 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. CLOUDS ARE CLEARING FROM THE NORTH AND THAT WILL
RESULT IN COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOK MAINLY
DRY. HOWEVER A WEAK COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT MAY BRING A FEW
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL TODAY AND MAINLY DEAL WITH CLOUDS.

LATEST VIS LOOP SHOWS CLOUDS CLEARING RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTH AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LOOK FOR THIS TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD CONTINUES TO
DRIFT EAST. THE ONLY ISSUES IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE
HURON TONIGHT. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE GFS.
H95 RH
VALUES SUGGEST THAT 80 PERCENT OR HIGHER VALUES WILL REMAIN EAST OF
US-127...PERHAPS JUST CLIPPING THE EASTERN COUNTIES. MAINLY SUNNY
WEATHER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LACKING HOWEVER AND CHANCES FOR
PCPN ARE PRETTY LOW.

TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S TONIGHT NORTH OF GRAND RAPIDS AND LOWER
TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED WED AND THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

OVERALL THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A CONSIDERABLE
WARM UP AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE SCALE RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  SUBSIDENCE WILL ACT TO
KEEP THE WEATHER DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
STRENGTHEN AS WE GO THROUGH THE PERIOD.  BY SUNDAY...MANY LOCATIONS
SHOULD REACH THE 60S.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL USE MOST OF ITS ENERGY UP IN CANADA. HERE IN
MI WE MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS AND THE WARMUP WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED
UNTIL LATER AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH.

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FOR MONDAY AS MODELS SHOW A LOW LEVEL JET
ARRIVING.  NEW HIGH RES EURO HAS 850 LIFTED INDEX VALUES DOWN TO - 3
DEG C 12Z MON ALONG THE LAKESHORE.  THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST
WITH THIS INSTABILITY AXIS...BUT BY 18Z 750 MB LIFTED INDEX VALUES
ARE DOWN TO -1 DEG C  AROUND MUSKEGON.  AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE
RISK FOR THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY.  I WILL KEEP THE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES GOING FOR MONDAY GIVEN THE ARRIVAL OF THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
LOOK LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 741 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

DRY AIR IS WORKING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND EAST WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RATHER RAPID IMPROVEMENT. SOUTHERN TAF
SITES...KAZO...KBTL AND KJXN WILL BE THE LAST TO CLEAR OUT. VFR
IS MAINLY EXPECTED WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. A LIMITED AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SNEAK IN AROUND KLAN AND KJXN. THIS COULD
LEAD TO A BRIEF MVFR BKN DECK AROUND DAWN WEDNESDAY MORNING. EVEN
THIS COULD BE A LITTLE PESSIMISTIC. LATER UPDATES MAY CONSIDER
REMOVING THIS FROM THE TAFS IF DRY AIR WINS OUT IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WAVES WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH IN RESPONSE TO THE
RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO ISSUES WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...JAM
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93






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