Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 280730
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FAIR BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL
TOWARD THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

OUR PRIMARY SHORT TERM FCST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO INVOLVE
DETERMINING POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN OVERALL SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT PCPN WILL
MOVE IN FROM WNW TO ESE MID TO LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. CRITICAL THICKNESS TOOLS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF
LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FCST AREA BUT THERMAL
PROFILES WILL MOST LIKELY MODERATE SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH FOR PLAIN
RAIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FCST
AREA.

MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH LIGHT WET
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS FOR MOST OF OUR
FCST AREA WITH RAPID MELTING AS MAX TEMPS REACH INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A FEW LOCATIONS MAINLY ACROSS
RELATIVELY HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHERN FCST AREA MAY RECEIVE
UP TO AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IF PCPN TYPE STAYS MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. PCPN WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY BUT IT WILL
REMAIN UNSEASOSONABLY COLD. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S IN SPITE OF ALL THE SUN AFTER A VERY COLD
START TO THE DAY TODAY. FAIR AND COLD WX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE PCPN GRADUALLY MOVES IN SUNDAY MORNING.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY AND PRODUCE FAIR WX WITH A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WITH MAX TEMPS MONDAY EXPECTED TO
REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A CLIPPER MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY... BUT THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW TRACK IS STILL A
LITTLE UNCLEAR. THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN PRECIP TYPES... WITH A
POTENTIAL SWATH OF 1-3 INCHES NORTH OF THE SFC LOW AND MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN FALLING ALONG AND SOUTH SOUTH OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
THE MAIN SNOW THREAT MONDAY NIGHT IS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96 WITH A
LOW TRACK FROM ROUGHLY MKE TO DETROIT.

A SFC HIGH THAT COMES IN BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM LEADS TO DRY
WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WARM
ADVECTION KICKS IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY AND THESE TWO
DAYS SHOULD BE THE MILDEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
TO PERHAPS AROUND 60. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE ON
THURSDAY AS A LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA DRAGS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM THROUGH THE STATE.

FRIDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY INTERESTING AS THE ECWMF SHOWS A NEGATIVE
TILT SHORTWAVE AND DEEPENING SFC LOW TRACKING TOWARD SRN LWR MI IN
THE AFTERNOON. THIS SOLUTION COULD BRING A THUNDER THREAT TO THE
AREA BUT CURRENTLY THE GFS IS NOT ON BOARD WITH THIS IDEA SO FCST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AOB 10 KNOTS THEN GO WEST OR SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

RIVERS ARE COMFORTABLY BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING. THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM HAD LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON
RIVER LEVELS. PRECIPITATION ON THE WAY FOR SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY
AMOUNT TO LESS THAN WEDNESDAY... SO FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...CAS






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