Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 151153
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
653 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER KANSAS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY. LIGHT
RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE COLDER AIR TURNS THE RAIN TO LIGHT SNOW. LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BUT ONLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE KANSAS LOW AS IT
MOVES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS AN ARC OF RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM LOUISIANA
NORTH ACROSS MISSOURI AND WRAPPING INTO A DEVELOPING LOW IN KANSAS.
THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND CROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE TURNING TO LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT. H8 TEMPS
NEAR -12C MOVE OVER THE LAKE BY WEDNESDAY BUT WE WON/T BE LOOKING AT
ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWS DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE AND A VERY LIMITED
DGZ. MOISTURE DEPTH FALLS TO AROUND 4K FT WEDNESDAY WITH THE DGZ
LIMITED TO THE VERY TOP OF THAT LAYER.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TODAY WITH AREAS OF FOG AS THE
LOW GETS CLOSER. HIGHS WILL MAKE A RUN AT 50 BEFORE TEMPS FALL
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY THEN
SURFACE RIDGING GENERALLY PREVAILS THROUGH SUNDAY. A SYSTEM TRACKING
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION OVER THE WEEKEND COULD PRODUCE A
BIT OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LWR MI INCLUDING THE I-94
CORRIDOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

ALTHOUGH IFR/LIFR CIGS STILL PREVAILED EARLY THIS MORNING... MVFR
CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN INCLUDING LAN AND JXN. GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXPAND AND BECOME MORE PREVALENT
LATER THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR WILL EVENTUALLY RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT BY 06Z
AS RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

AREAS OF FOG MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES TO A HALF MILE OVER THE LAKE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
COLDER AIR TURNS THE RAIN TO LIGHT SNOW. QPF LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH WILL HAVE A NEGLIGIBLE AFFECT ON AREA RIVERS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93






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