Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 260715

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
315 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term/Marine

Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

It will be cold and wet today and tonight as low pressure tracks
just south of Lower Michigan. An east flow of cold air will mean
there is a possibility of some snow mixing in north of Big Rapids
and Mount Pleasant late today and tonight. The low will move east
with fair weather returning later Thursday into Friday.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

No significant changes to the forecast philosophy with this storm
as model guidance is consistent with previous runs. Still a tough
call as the snow potential across the northern zones with
marginal sfc temps. Do not expect any winter weather impacts from
this event.

Wet bulb zero heights are still progged to be near the ground
across the northern forecast area tonight. We will mention a rain
snow mix across the northern zones beginning late today and
continuing tonight. The high ground of Osceola County could see
light accums of wet snow on non paved surfaces by late tonight.

Thunder threat is minimal and confined to the far southern zones
where some elevated instability is present today and tonight. Will
include slight chance of thunder along the southern tier.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

We continue to see a trend of somewhat drier weather expected in the
long term compared to previous forecasts over the past couple of
days. There is still some chances of rain, but definitely less than

The first round of rain chances look to come late Fri night and
early on Sat. This is one of the periods that has trended drier from
24 hour as ago. The sfc low and associated warm front are a bit
further north, focusing the llj and rain further north also. The
chance of rain will come when the front slips through the area late
Fri night and early Sat. This front will be moisture starved at that
time due to the llj and moisture transport remaining further north.

We will see another chance of rain then for Sat night. A wave of low
pressure will ride along the frontal boundary that hangs up south of
the area. This looks to be focused on Sat night, with rain chances
exiting by the daylight hours on Sun.

We should see a fairly dry and increasingly mild period for Sun
through Mon. Some initially cooler air will be in place on Sun
behind the departing front from Sat. High pressure overhead on Sun
will slip east by Monday, and advect much warmer air over the area
as low pressure intensifies over the Plains and upper Midwest. We
could see highs touch 70 with h850 temps potentially warming to
over 10c.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 158 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Plenty of impacts expected at the terminals in this forecast
period. Some light rain will try to move in across the area from
west to east toward 12z this morning. This should not cause too
much trouble initially as some residual dry air will have to be

The dry air will be overcome this afternoon and much better threat
for rain will come. E/SE winds will pick up and become gusty with
gusts up to 30 knots possible. Cigs and vsbys will drop, and
should become IFR or lower mid-late afternoon. The lower
conditions will last through the end of the forecast period. Winds
will diminish after 00z.


Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

No changes to the small craft advisory. Winds and waves will build
with gusts to 30 knots. offshore winds will mean the highest
waves will be out away from shore.


Issued at 315 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Widespread rainfall is expected over the whole area Wednesday
through Wednesday night. Between 0.50-1.00 inches of rain is
expected. Most rivers and streams will stay below bankfull. There is
a low chance for a couple of the typically flood-prone river
forecast points, such as Sycamore Creek at Holt, to exceed bankfull.
Significant flooding is not expected. Sycamore Creek at Holt could
approach bankfull stage (6 ft) as early as Wednesday evening.


LM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for LMZ844>849.



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