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000
FXUS66 KHNX 111120
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
420 AM PDT Thu Apr 11 2024


.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A warming trend will continue through tomorrow, with
high temperatures reaching 10 to 20 degrees above normal.

2. Another disturbance moves through Central California late
Friday through the weekend that will result in cooler
temperatures and a chance for precipitation.

3. Strong thunderstorms may develop Saturday afternoon and
evening.

4. Strong wind potential occurs Friday and Saturday in
eastern Kern County, including the desert floor and slopes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A warming trend continues across central California under the
influence of a ridge of high pressure over the west coast. Today
will be around 3 to 6 degrees warmer than Wednesday. with highs
in the San Joaquin Valley topping out around 15 degrees above
normal for this time of year. Probabilities for high
temperatures of at least 85 degrees in the San Joaquin Valley
this afternoon are around 60 to 90 percent.

Another weekend storm system is in store for central California
as a low pressure system from the northeast Pacific swings
through our area, displacing the resident ridge. This will
bring cooler temperatures to our area, along with rain and
mountain snow in addition to some gusty winds and potential for
thunderstorms.

By Friday, we will begin to see impacts as cooler air encroaches
and high temperatures are mostly around 5 to 10 degrees lower,
although little change is expected for San Joaquin Valley areas
from Fresno County southward. More notable cooling will come
through the weekend. By SUnday, high temperatures will be around
10 degrees below normal. Probabilities for high temperatures no
higher than 65 degrees in the San Joaquin Valley on Sunday are
running around 55 to 75 percent.

There is around a 20 to 30 percent chance for some
thunderstorms developing ahead of the incoming system over the
Sierra north of Kings Canyon by Friday afternoon, then
precipitation will spread across our area by Friday night and
Saturday as the system swings through. The bulk of the
precipitation will fall Saturday and Saturday night with some
lingering rain and snow into Sunday. Total rainfall amounts
around one third to one half inch are expected in the San
Joaquin Valley, with as much as one to one and a half inches in
the Sierra foothills. Portions of the Kern County Mountains can
expect three quarters of an inch to an inch, while around one
tenth of an inch is forecast for the Kern County desert areas.
Over the Coastal Range, as much as one half to three quarters of
an inch is forecasted. There is a slight chance of seeing even
higher rainfall amounts with the weekend system. Highest
reasonable potential rainfall amounts, or 10 percent
probabilities, are as high as three quarters of an inch in the
San Joaquin Valley and up to two inches in the surrounding
terrain. The Weather Prediction Center has a marginal risk of
excessive rainfall (5 to 15 percent chance) extending eastward
over the higher elevations of our Westside Mountains.

Snow levels with this system are forecast to start out around
6000-6500 feet and then lower overnight Saturday night to around
4500 feet. Total snow amounts are forecast to be around 3 to 6
inches down near 5000 feet, with as much as 12 to 15 inches at
the higher elevations. High end snow amounts(10 percent chance)
are around 18 inches at the higher elevations. With snow levels
expected to lower to around 4500 feet, there is some potential
for snow falling on the major highway passes in Kern County, but
current guidance shows just a 20 percent probability of at least
1/10 of an inch of snow at Tejon Pass.

The low pressure system will also bring instability leading to
potential for thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Winds
will also increase, with strong gusts developing during the
afternoon and evening Friday and Saturday. Highest speeds will
be Saturday, when gusts in the typically windy Kern County
mountain and desert areas have a 75 percent probability of
gusting to at least 45 to 55 mph. There is a 10 percent
probability that gusts there will reach as high as 65 to 75 mph.

The low pressure will continue to track away from our area by
the start of next week, and although another system will drop
out of the Pacific Northwest region, it is progged to take an
inside slider type trajectory, and Monday through the middle of
next week should return us to dry and warming conditions. High
temperatures will be back around normal by Wednesday.

&&


.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected across interior Central California
for at least the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...

None.



&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

JEB

weather.gov/hanford