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000
FXUS64 KHUN 171659
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1159 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 838 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

An unorganized line of showers with a medium chance of producing
lightning is moving through the TN Valley from the northwest. CAMs
are showing this line continuing southeast through the late afternoon,
outrunning greater instability behind it. Therefore, the previous
forecast remains on track with minor tweaks to increase winds
based on current observations. Severe weather threat remains low
today with any stronger storm that forms bringing chances of gusty
winds, small hail, and lightning. Otherwise, despite ongoing
cloud cover, highs are forecast to reach the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 115 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Any lingering SHRA and TSRA in our southern counties will end
early this evening. Lower and mid level clouds will likely remain
abundant as well with flow also remaining southerly. Thus, expect
a rather mild overnight again with lows in the lower to middle
60s for most areas.

The more zonal pattern will lend itself to multiple shortwaves
tracking east through the southern U.S. the next few days. The
next of these arrives Thursday evening, although the NAM and even
moreso the GFS suggests a rather early arrival of SHRA/TSRA
Thursday afternoon as theta-E advection increases. Will maintain
the low PoP, but confidence in this is low at this time. Highs
should reach the lower to middle 80s.

Better chances of SHRA and TSRA will exist Thursday night into
Friday morning as a plume of CAPE values of 1000-1500 j/kg ahead
of an approaching cold front arrive. 6km bulk shear values of
30-40kt will also be present, so a few strong to marginally severe
storms are possible, mainly posing a hail and wind threat at this
point. As the front shifts southeast, CAPE values may increase
with daytime heating in our south/southeastern forecast area,
mainly southeast of Moulton-Guntersville. The threat should end
by early Friday evening as the front shifts southeast of the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 115 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Cooler and more stable air will arrive on Saturday. But zonal flow
and additional shortwaves will push east from TX through the Gulf
states. Chances of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms
(elevated) will increase substantially Saturday night into Sunday
as the strongest of the shortwaves arrives. The rainfall and
clouds will also keep temperatures much chillier than this past
week, with lows in the 40s Sunday morning and only in the upper
50s to lower 60s Sunday. By Monday morning, lows will be in the
lower 40s for most locations. But then, temperatures modify into
early next week as modest mid and upper level ridging takes place
over the southeast U.S., with highs back fully into the 70s by
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Ongoing showers/storms in the vicinity of KHSV will continue
through the late afternoon. Otherwise, scattered to broken cloud
cover and lowered visibilities will cause MVFR to IFR conditions
at both KHSV and KMSL through the TAF period. Low clouds moving
in overnight have a potential to cause periods of LIFR conditions
due to 200 ft ceilings and visibilities as low as 1 SM. If any
clearing occurs, fog development is possible. If fog develops, it
is forecast to dissipate by the early afternoon hours on Thursday.


&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...HC