420
FXUS63 KICT 161706
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1206 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers/thunderstorms in Southeast Kansas this afternoon

- Another chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday night and
into Sunday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

The weak frontal system will be slowly moving through Southeast
Kansas.  There is some residual showers and thunderstorms in this
area this morning which will be fairly slow to move out of the
region.  Southeast Kansas may ongoing thunderstorm chances today.
This thunderstorm activity is not expected to be severe but a few
strong storms are possible with small hail (<1/2 inch).  Friday
night and into Saturday, another weak front will come close to the
region but this time, it appears the ridging will win out and keep
the front to the north. Ridging will also keep rain chances at bay
until the evening when the mid level moisture returns along with the
needed instability to bring the chances for showers and
thunderstorms back. North Central Kansas appears to the have the
best chance for the shower and thunderstorm activity.  There is some
significant disagreement with the ECMWF keeping the area dry but the
GFS families much wetter. Confidence in the rainfall for Saturday
night and into Sunday is rather low as a result.  The ensemble
families do agree on the ridging keeping the main front at bay which
will have the affect of allowing WAA to continue and allow
temperatures to push into the mid and upper 80s for Sunday.

Beyond Sunday, ridging is expected to push into the region and will
allow some decent WAA into the region.  Temperatures are expected to
be rather warm with temperatures likely to get into the low 90s in
South Central Kansas Monday. Monday night and into mid week the
frontal system which came close to the region on Saturday will make
another attempt to come through the region.  This time, it is likely
to come through and bringing temperatures back down to a more normal
level.  Tuesday night looks to have the best chances for showers and
thunderstorms along the front as it finally comes through. There
appear to be returning chances for showers or thunderstorms when
this occurs.  Confidence is rather low at this point though.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Low clouds will linger over parts of southern Kansas for a few
hours but should scattered out. VFR conditions expected for the
rest of the day. There could be some isolated showers/storms
redevelop over southeast Kansas otherwise quite weather should
prevail. Low clouds will likely develop over southern Kansas
late tonight into Friday morning with cigs in the MVFR/IFR
category.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ELM
AVIATION...CDJ