563
FXUS63 KILX 011445
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
945 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry weather today with isolated showers and thunderstorms
  tonight into Thu mainly north of I-70 as warm front lifts north
  through southeast IL overnight and through central IL during Thu
  morning. Better chance of thunderstorms west of the IL river Thu
  afternoon/evening.

* Above average temperatures expected through the next 7 days,
  warmest temps Thursday with highs in the mid 80s and breezy
  south to SSW winds gusting up to 30 mph.

* Another round of showers and thunderstorms expected Thursday
  night and shifting into eastern IL during Friday as cold front
  moves eastward over the prairie states.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Cold front is pushing through Decatur this hour and will settle
into areas south of I-70 early this afternoon. Not too much
expected with this boundary in the short term, with the main focus
later tonight as it begins to lift back north as a warm front.
Early look at the morning high-res models have been showing some
convective development over central/southern Missouri later this
afternoon and then tracking northeast, with the NAM nest most
aggressive with some activity as far northeast as Champaign toward
midnight. However, forecast soundings over a large part of the
CWA have some decent amounts of dry air below 850 mb, not
surprising given the northeast flow behind the front. Have backed
off some on the northeast extent of evening PoP`s as a result.

Temperatures for this afternoon appear to be on track, with highs
in the upper 70s over a large part of the forecast area, with
lower 80s near/south of I-70 as the front begins to slow down.

Geelhart

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms tracked eastward across
areas along and north of a Canton to Normal line during late
evening and early overnight. Peoria picked up 0.39 inch rain and
bringing their April rainfall total to 7.29 inches, bringing it up
from the 12th to the 8th wettest April on record. The weakening
area of convection was along the northern IL/IN border northeast
of Vermilion county IL and moving away from central IL. This
convection was out ahead of a weakening cold front extending from
1002 mb low pressure in northeast MN through eastern WI into nw IL
approaching the IL river and into central MO. Mild temps were in
the low to mid 60s with cooler 40s and 50s back in Iowa.

Cold front to continue to weaken as it pushes through southeast IL
early this afternoon and passed through dry rest of today. Partly
to mostly cloudy skies over central IL today with more sunshine in
southeast IL. South to SW winds 7-15 mph and few gusts up to 20
mph to turn nw after frontal passage. Highs today range from the
mid 70s over the IL river valley, to the lower 80s in southeast IL
from I-70 southeast where cold front passes through later and more
sunshine for solar heating.

A warm front lifting northward over southeast IL overnight and
through central IL Thu morning, to bring isolated showers and
thunderstorms to the area, with best chances north of I-70
overnight and early Thu morning. Lows overnight in the upper 50s
central IL and lower 60s in southeast IL.

Surface low emerging over southeast CO by sunset to eject ne into
the upper MS river valley by sunset Thu and lift warm front north
of CWA by midday Thursday. Convection chances still look quite low
on Thu east of the IL river, with best chances west of the IL
river Thu afternoon especially late Thu afternoon when SPC day2
introduces marginal risk of severe from Galesburg to Quincy west
into Thu evening. Breezy south to SSW winds Thu with gusts 25-30
mph to bring warm highs in the mid 80s, and warmest day since
Sunday Apr 14th. Cold front moves eastward into central IL by dawn
Friday with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms from
west to east during Thu night. Best chances of showers and a few
thunderstorms shift into eastern IL on Friday and lingering
chances of showers Fri evening in southeast IL. Highs Friday in
the low to mid 70s.

Dry conditions overnight Fri night and Saturday morning, then a
weak disturbance could bring a chance of showers and isolated
thunderstorms into the area Sat afternoon and evening. Much of CWA
appears dry overnight Sat night and Sunday, though we have low
pops in southeast IL Sunday afternoon/evening. Highs in the 70s
this weekend which is still a few degrees warmer than normal for
early May.

Extended forecast models continue to show a strong/deepening
mid/upper level trof over the western states and ejecting a
stronger storm system into the central plains on Monday and
surface and upper level low lifting into the Dakotas on Tue while
pushing a frontal boundary into IL. We will likely see periods of
showers and thunderstorms Mon through Tue and may have risk of
strong to severe storms from Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Highs
in the mid to upper 70s Monday and upper 70s/lower 80s Tue. Trends
of models continue to show heavier rainfall early next week
focuses from Texas NNE to Iowa along with stronger risk of severe
weather.

07

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 550 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail across the central IL
airports through 12Z/7 am Thursday. A cold front along the IL
river will push southeast of I-55 by mid morning and through DEC
and CMI by late morning. South to SW winds around 10 kts to switch
WNW to NW behind the front. Broken high clouds from IL river se
and even mid level clouds along I-72 to scatter out from the nw
during mid/late morning. Could see few to scattered cumulus clouds
with bases of 4-5k ft today with broken cumulus clouds se of
central IL airports. Broken mid level clouds to arrive from the sw
by overnight ahead of a warm front lifting back north into
southern and sw IL. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible
overnight though better chance of these are se and nw of central
IL airports per latest HRRR model. Winds veer NE at 4-8 kts at
sundown and east to ENE around 10 kts overnight.


07

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$