Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 270012
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
812 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty west-southwest winds will die down overnight.

- Isolated rain showers possible tonight west of interstate 69.

- Dry but cooler until the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 757 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Just did a quick grid update to clear out our line of showers
and isolated thunderstorms from our NW Ohio counties, and tweak
winds/temps/sky a bit for the next couple hours. A shortwave
will swing around the upper low, and upstream observations
suggest enough lingering LL moisture to warrant a mention of
isolated rain showers and/or drizzle in the west half tonight.
Models do show the moisture dwindling as the wave goes eastward,
so it`s possible these don`t make it into our area. Given
precipitation/drizzle being observed already, added 20 pops for
locations west of I 69 through 4z.

Otherwise, winds are largely dying down and have shifted west-
southwest. Gusts are in the 25 to 35 knot range as of this
writing, and expect them to continue to dwindle to around 15-25
knots overnight. The gale warning for Lake Michigan has been
allowed to expire as planned at 00z (with mention of a few gale
force gusts to 35 knots possible through the early evening as we
continue to decouple).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Showers and just a couple of thunderstorms are approaching the IN-OH
line as of this writing. WInd gusts with these showers have been
comparable to the synoptic wind gusts observed up to this point. As
such, forecast has worked out well. Temperatures are dropping
quickly into the 40s over northwest Indiana; 40 degrees at some
sites in north-central IL. Behind the cold front, observed wind
gusts are highly variable but are closer to 35 mph than 45 mph.

Showers and any thunderstorms depart northwest Ohio within a few
hours. Gusty surface wind will subside near/after sunset as the
strong low-level jet exits and mixing ceases. Of course, following
this cold front, cool through at least Thursday morning with a
trough overhead. With plenty of green-up underway, I did contemplate
adding frost Wednesday night (Thursday morning). Wind is near 5
knots or less but dew point depressions around of 5 degrees might be
a little too great.

A ridge develops by Friday but flattens at times through the weekend
as various impulses ripple through. These same disturbances present
the chance for rain Friday night through Saturday morning. Highs
will be near normal; mid-to-upper 50s.

A rigorous trough digs in over the Four Corners to begin April. Well
downstream, a low and associated warm front brings rain to our area.
How the low evolves and how much cold air intrudes as the low
departs early Tuesday remains to be seen. Alas, POPs stick around
into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 757 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Predominantly MVFR to VFR conditions at the TAF sites this
period. A low pressure system will bring a weak trough through
the area this evening, bringing potential for isolated rain
showers or patchy drizzle for KSBN (have VCSH for this). Did
not have enough confidence to add VCSH to KFWA for now as it
appears moisture dwindles with eastward progression of the
trough.

Otherwise, expect mainly cloud cover with this feature, with
ceilings ranging from 1500-2500 ft per latest observations. High
pressure builds in for Wednesday afternoon especially, giving
way to VFR conditions/clearing skies.W-SW winds gusting to
around 25-35 knots will diminish overnight into Wednesday.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ043.
      Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MCD
DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...MCD


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