703
FXUS64 KJAN 300300
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1000 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 952 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A few showers and isolated storms continue mainly across the
Golden Triangle this evening. Hi-res models suggest that another
short wave may kick off a few more shower/storms this evening
before dissipating and moving east of the area after midnight.
Stratus will develop overnight, with some areas of patchy fog.
Lows tonight will fall into the low 60s for most of the area./15/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Decaying MCS from this morning continues to be our main
controlling feature and it has kept temps down and storms/precip
has been way earlier in the day. As noted earlier, this feature
has also used up instability and most moisture (lower level
transport) so recovery looks to be a challenge. 12z Hi-res
guidance continued to struggle with initialization, thus very poor
performance in the initial 12-18hrs. However, the latest Hrrr
(17z) seems to finally have a better handle. As a result, there
looks to be some showery activity in the tonight period, but it`s
a good bit less than prev runs indicated...thus lowered PoPs from
guidance to better illustrate this. Will keep some low end mention
of thunder across the E third as there seems to be sufficient
instability along with some decent forcing as the upper features
moves east overnight.

Moving into Tue/Wed...there may be some patchy fog in the S/SW and W
but confidence is not too high as lower clouds may limited that
potential. Overall, drier deep layer will be in place in the wake of
the system today and that should keep the area precip free.

Moisture returns for Thursday as return flow gets established and we
see this show up with a warm front like boundary translating
northward across the area. We will see the bulk of the short wave
energy to our N, but some waves will exist in the zonal type flow
regime. This introduces more uncertainty as these smaller scale
features will drive our local weather. First feature of note looks
to be on Thu. Most of the guidance shows this well at 700mb and this
could be just enough, and if timed right will daytime heating, to
support some strong to severe convection. This is day 4, so we have
some time to see how things go and how prev days (Wed) convection
may have any influence. Overall, just a period to watch.

Rain chances will remain in at least some part of the forecast area
Thursday through the weekend. This is in part due to decent moisture
making a return and favorable SW low level flow keeping the
trajectories in light to maintain. As noted about Thursday and the
potential short wave, the remainder of the forecast looks to see
something similar. Each day looks to be warm and some variation of
decent lapse rates around (typical for this time of year) so the
area looks to see decent instability develop. The key will be timing
the waves with heating or if a more robust wave develops. We also
look to keep a surface boundary near the area (it could waver
in/out) but this would also provide a potential focus for
precip/storms. Overall, a good bit of uncertainty exists from Friday
into early next week as variability is quite high in the guidance
suite. Nonetheless, it`s a period of days where we will need to keep
an eye on. Nothing looks like any widespread or all day type stuff,
but potential is in play to keep 20-60% type PoPs. The forecast will
get refined as we get closer. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 658 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Most TAF sites are VFR this evening and this will continue into
the evening hours. Stratus will develop overnight and expect a mix
of VFR/IFR and possibly LIFR conditions. Expect the fog/stratus
to lift after 14-15Z on Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       63  82  60  87 /  40   0   0  10
Meridian      62  84  59  88 /  80   0   0   0
Vicksburg     64  83  61  88 /  20   0   0  10
Hattiesburg   64  85  61  89 /  50   0   0  10
Natchez       63  85  61  87 /  20   0   0  20
Greenville    64  82  62  86 /  30   0   0  10
Greenwood     64  82  60  87 /  50   0   0  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

15/