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000
FXUS64 KJAN 192356
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
656 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Tonight and Tomorrow...

The forecast remains on track, temperatures in the northwest have
warmed to right around 70 while temps in the southeast have
warmed to right around 85. Tonight the broad surface frontal
system will continue to move east into Canada sending a cold front
southeast towards the south central states. Northerly winds will
increase as the front approaches and puts an end to rain and storm
chances overnight until right before daybreak when they will
begin once again centered on the ArkLaMiss borders. Going into the
morning dense patchy fog will be likely to persist in the
southeastern portions of the CWA as well as patchy fog being
possible along and north of the HWY-84 corridor. Excess moisture
and light winds will make development easy and more likely as we
have seen for the last few days. Overnight low temperatures will
have a wide gradient from northwest to southeast. Temps in the
northwest will be seasonable in the in the low - mid 50s, while
low temps in the southeast will be seasonably warm in the low -
mid 60s. Throughout the course of the day tomorrow multiple
disturbances moving east will have our area progged for continued
rain and storm chances with a an isolated thunderstorm or two
being possible./KVP/

Saturday night through late next week...

We will be cool and wet to start Saturday night and Sunday as a
series of subtle shortwaves embedded within overall flow shift
across the area. Expect any thunder (which should be isolated to far
southern areas) Saturday night to diminish with waning instability
Sunday. Not expecting a wash out with QPF totaling around a half
to 3 quarters of an inch across the area Sunday. Ridging builds in
the wake of a final shortwave Sunday night into Monday, shutting
off rain chances. Temperatures will be noticeably cool these
first few days in the extended term with highs only in the 60s and
low 70s, about 5 to 10 degrees below normal for this time of
year. Dry conditions will persist through the first half of next
week beneath upper ridging. Mid to late next week, clouds will
increase amid a warm, moist advection regime. Cannot rule out the
occasional sprinkle or isolated shower at this time. By week`s
end, temperatures will be above average with highs in the
80s./SAS/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Aviation weather will deteriorate as we go through tonight into
Saturday morning. Expect stratus to lower to IFR/LIFR categories
late tonight with some threat for fog developing primarily in the
HBG/PIB area during the early morning. A frontal system will
intensify over the forecast area as we go through Saturday and
this will eventually bring widespread ra/tsra, although exactly
where this will be most widespread is still a bit uncertain. In
any case, ceilings will likely not be quick improve during the
day, and visibility will be reduced at times due to precip. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       62  69  50  61 /  30  70  90  70
Meridian      62  72  48  60 /  30  60  80  80
Vicksburg     59  65  50  62 /  40  70  90  50
Hattiesburg   67  81  55  63 /  20  50  60  70
Natchez       63  71  50  61 /  20  50  80  50
Greenville    55  59  51  61 /  30  80  80  30
Greenwood     55  61  48  61 /  20  80  90  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

KP/SAS20/EC