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000
FXUS62 KJAX 211751
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
151 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 146 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Showers and storms will build across the forecast area this
afternoon ahead of an advancing cold front moving in from out of
the west, with gusty winds building in from out of the southwest.
Potential for the formation of strong to severe storms will
increase this afternoon as the trough ahead of the cold front
interacts with diurnal heating this afternoon. Primary threats
associated with severe storms today will be damaging winds and
hail near 1 inch in diameter. Convection will dissipate and move
offshore later tonight with scattered lingering showers clearing
out by Monday morning. High temperatures today will occur ahead of
the frontal passage with max temps ranging into the upper 80s.
Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the 50s and the
lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 146 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

The cold front has made its way south and out of the area,
blazing a trail of cooler temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s
behind it. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy as moisture
trails behind the front with 20-35 percent chances of some
lingering rain showers and thunderstorms mainly east of Route 301.

Tuesday, Temperatures will begin to warm as high pressure fills in
behind the front bringing drier conditions and clear skies.
Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s, staying in the lower
70s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 146 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

High pressure ridging settles over the area for wednesday
creating clear skies and allow temperatures to continue to
increase into the upper 70s to low 80s. A cold front looks to move
through the area wednesday evening/Thursday morning but
conditions look to be too dry for any precipitation at this time.
Temperatures will continue to warm, getting into the 80s by
Thursday with slightly cooler temperatures along the coast only
warming slightly by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 146 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will build across southeast Georgia and
northeast Florida today ahead of an advancing cold front.
There is a potential for strong to severe storms to form in
association with the front, capable of producing damaging winds
and small hail. Showers and storms will disperse and move offshore
tonight with drier conditions settling in over the region on
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 146 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

A cold front will approach the area waters today and will bring
increased offshore winds and a chance of afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. The front will enter the southeast Georgia waters
late this afternoon and move through the rest of the coastal
waters tonight. A surge of northerly winds is expected behind the
front tonight and will lead to small craft advisories for most of
the area waters beginning on Monday. Winds will decrease and turn
onshore Tuesday to Wednesday as high pressure then builds across
area waters once again. Another cool front will pass through the
waters during the latter part of next week with onshore winds
returning by next weekend.

Rip Currents: A low-end moderate risk of rip currents for
northeast FL beaches today with surf up to 2 to near 3 ft based on
swells of 2 ft at 11 seconds. Increased threat of rip currents
and long shore currents expected Monday due to the gusty northerly
winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  54  71  47  77 /  20   0   0   0
SSI  56  69  55  72 /  50  10   0   0
JAX  56  71  52  74 /  60  10   0   0
SGJ  60  71  58  74 /  70  20   0   0
GNV  57  74  50  79 /  60  10   0   0
OCF  60  76  52  80 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 3 PM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ470-472-474.

&&

$$