Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FNUS72 KJAX 151300
FWSJAX

Spot Forecast for faver dykes weather forcast zone 8 11 12...faver dykes state park DEP
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
900 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on May 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (904) 741-4370 if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
...HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms will overspread the burn site towards
the noon hour, with a few strong or even severe storms possible
through the mid to late afternoon hours. Stronger storms this
afternoon will be capable of producing Periods of heavy
downpours will be possible this afternoon. Otherwise,
strengthening southwesterly transport winds and breezy
southwesterly surface winds outside of thunderstorm activity
will result in high daytime dispersion values at the burn site
by the late morning hours today. Surface and transport winds
will gradually shift to a westerly direction by the late
evening hours, gusty transport speeds through midnight keeping
nighttime dispersion values elevated overnight. A drier air
mass will then filter into our region on Thursday as breezy
westerly transport winds continue, creating good daytime
dispersion values at the burn site.

.REST OF TODAY...
TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Chc of pcpn (%).20  30  50  60  70  70  60  50  40
RH..............87  82  74  74  72  70  70  60  60
Heat index (F)..77  79  87  87  89  88  90  92  92
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..12  12  13  13  14  15  15  15  15
20 FT wind gust.17  17  20  20  21  23  23  23  23
Mix hgt (kft)...1.4 1.5 2.2 2.4 2.4 1.8 2.3 2.2 2.4
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.17  20  21  21  21  21  23  25  25
LVORI...........4   3   3   3   3   3   1   1   1

.TONIGHT...
TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Chc of pcpn (%).20  10  0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
RH..............63  65  72  76  79  82  87  90  93  93  93  97
Heat index (F)..90  89  83  78  77  76  74  73  71  71  70  69
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..14  13  12  12  10  10  10  10  9   9   9   8
20 FT wind gust.21  20  17  17  16  16  16  16  14  14  14  13
Mix hgt (kft)...2.0 1.5 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.24  21  17  17  16  16  15  15  14  13  13  13
LVORI...........1   2   3   4   4   4   5   5   6   6   6   7

.THURSDAY...
TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
RH..............100 100 87  74  67  61  55  50  45  45  45  45
Heat index (F)..68  68  71  76  83  86  88  89  90  92  93  92
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..8   8   7   9   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  9
20 FT wind gust.13  13  10  14  16  16  16  16  16  16  16  14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.6 0.6 1.6 2.7 3.7 4.1 4.5 4.9 4.6 4.4 4.1
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.12  12  13  13  13  13  13  14  14  14  13  12
LVORI...........7   7   5   3   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1

$$
Forecaster...Nelson
Requested by...stephanie suter
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414265.0/JAX
.DELDT 05/15/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL stephanie.suter@dep.state.fl.us