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000
FXUS63 KJKL 140843
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
443 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A passing disturbance may bring isolated showers and storms to
  areas along and east of the Mountain Parkway Sunday evening.

- Well above normal high temperatures will affect the area from
  Sunday through Thursday, peaking in the upper 70s to mid 80s
  each day, or 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 140 AM EDT SUN APR 14 2024

Just a quick update to fine tune the temperatures, mainly,
capturing the quicker cooling valleys. Did also add in the current
obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor updates have
been sent to the NDFD and web servers.

UPDATE Issued at 1038 PM EDT SAT APR 13 2024

A few of the typically cooler valley locations have cooled off
quicker than expected, so updated the grids interpolating hourly
temperatures using current observations as a starting point.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track and no significant
changes are needed with the late evening update.

UPDATE Issued at 750 PM EDT SAT APR 13 2024

No updates needed for early this evening. Grids were updated and
sent to NDFD with latest blends to recent hourly observations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 313 PM EDT SAT APR 13 2024

As of 15Z surface analysis, high pressure is situated across the
Deep South and this will remain in place through the period. Also,
there`s a warm front extending, from a surface low in southern
Canada, southeast across the central CONUS. Locally, mostly clear
skies are in place with warming temperatures/

Through the day today, high pressure will remain in place and the
warm front, mentioned above, will lift through the region. A pretty
quiet day is expected aside from breezy northwest winds. Winds will
diminish toward the overnight but will shift to the southwest as the
warm front lifts through the region. Behind this front, warmer
temperatures and height rises are expected overnight and will persist
through the remainder of the period.

Through the overnight, the little Clipper moving through southern
Canada will dive southeast through the Great Lakes into the Mid-
Atlantic. This will drag a weak cold front to the door step of the
CWA for Sunday afternoon. HiRes CAMS are hinting at a line of
showers and thunderstorms diving south but how far south is a little
hazy as the front looks to stall out along the Ohio River.
Therefore, opted to keep light PoP across northern portions of the
CWA through the end of the forecast period. Otherwise, above average
temperatures are expected to be in place with mostly dry weather for
the duration of the forecast period.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 443 AM EDT SUN APR 14 2024

An active pattern on tap in the extended portion of the forecast.
The large scale upper level pattern will start off with an extensive
trough of low pressure taking shape over the west central Plains
Monday night. A quasistationary boundary will extended eastward from
an area of surface low pressure over the west central Plains, across
the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and out to the Mid-Atlantic
area of the east coast. Showers and storms will fire all along this
boundary, as warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico surges
northward and interact with the front. This pattern is expected to
shift eastward with time, as the Plains trough strengthens and
begins moving eastward and then northeastward by Tuesday night. The
GFS, ECMWF, GFS Ensembles, and WPC solutions all are in general
agreement with the large scale pattern and its evolution.

The first round of rain should be confined to areas mainly along and
north of the Mountain Parkway, as the front moves slowly north. As
the parent low continue to develop, it will move into the southern
and eastern Great Lakes on Wednesday. As it does so, the surface
cold front associated with the system will move steadily across the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Wednesday and Wednesday night. Widespread
showers and scattered thunderstorms will fire all along the front,
and will move through our area. A few storms could become strong
with gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall.
The initial low and surface front will move off to the east of our
area on Thursday. After a brief lull in precip part of Thursday,
another area of low pressure, and its surface cold front, will move
in from the west on Friday, and will bring more rounds of showers
and a few storms to eastern Kentucky late Thursday through Friday.
This round of rain will gradually taper off Friday night through
Sunday, and should be out of the area by Sunday morning, as the
system pushes off to our east.

Temperatures will be quite warm the first few days of the extended,
as we will be firmly entrenched in the warm sector of an eastward
moving cyclone. With increasing southerly flow spreading across the
region, temperatures could climb as high as the upper 70s and lower
80s Tuesday through Thursday. After the first system moves through
on Thursday, winds will shift to the west for a short time, and will
allow cooler air to temporarily overspread the area, leading to much
cooler temperatures Friday and Saturday. In fact, daytime highs on
those two days could be 10 to 20 degrees cooler than what we see
Tuesday through Thursday. Nightly lows will only fall into the 50s
and 60s the first half of the period, before falling into the upper
30s to mid 40s Friday night and Saturday night, as much cooler air
spills into the region behind the departing second area of low
pressure.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT SUN APR 14 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Winds will be light
and variable at the sfc through the night, though southwesterly
LLWS of up to 40 kts develops toward 08Z/Sunday and persists
through 13Z. Sfc winds then increase out of the southwest at 10
to 15 kts with some gusts to around 20 kts - continuing through
dusk before diminishing again.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...VORST/GREIF