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000
FXUS63 KLBF 182030
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
330 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool with temperatures well below normal through the first
  part of the weekend, then warmer.

- Minor snow accumulations with little impact tonight into
  Friday and again Friday night into Saturday west of Hwy 83,
  primarily southern panhandle into southwest Nebraska.

- Unsettled conditions persist with potential for showers just
  about each day through the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A split flow regime aloft will have some phasing of upper level jet
features with broad ascent over the High Plains through Saturday. At
the same time short waves rotating around an expansive closed low
over central Canada will keep persistent mid level FGEN forcing,
deformation, and weak isentropic lift in an environment with modest
low level moisture. Expect this will yield cool temperatures and a
good amount of cloudiness into the weekend with potential for rain
and a diurnally driven mix/change to snow across the panhandle and a
broad section of southwest Nebraska. Expect the precipitation to
come in 2 surges with one surge tonight into Friday and a more
robust surge Friday night into Saturday. Do not expect precipitation
rates will be especially robust given the lack of steep las ates
aloft to support convective enhancement and do not see robust lift
through the dendritic growth zone. Also, despite the lack of truly
deep moisture, the top of the moist layer is cold enough so
glaciation should not be an issue.

All this being said, expect some light snow to push up form the
southwest tonight and overspread the majority of the region west of
Hwy 83, then continue through Friday with a gradual transition to
rain and a shift to locations mainly along and south of I-80.
Ensembles and probabilistic guidance is not very enthusiastic
for snow accumulations with generally a 30 percent chance for
one inch or more at best across the southern panhandle into
portions of southwest Nebraska. Expect little to no impact from
accumulations as the ground is warming up and insolation after
daybreak Friday will keep roads just wet and limit any
accumulations to grassy surfaces.

The next surge or precipitation pushes up form the southwest Friday
night into Saturday. Precipitation will change back to a
predominately snow ptype with a light coating generally along and
south of Hwy 2. Probabilistic guidance is still not very robust
with accumulations as potential for 2 inches or more is no
higher than 25 percent for a small portion of far southwest
Nebraska. So again expect limited to minor impacts from
accumulations Friday night with any potential accumulations on
roadways melting after daybreak Saturday. Lingering
precipitation Saturday will transition to a ptype of mainly
rain, then gradually diminish through Saturday night. As
precipitation tapers off toward early Sunday morning and upper
moisture wanes, glaciation may become problematic with some
drizzle/freezing drizzle through probabilistic guidance
indicates a negligible chance for any glazing. Will be keeping
an eye on this and any potential impacts over the next couple
of days.

Overnight temperatures thorugh the period will range from the
low/mid 20s northern panhandle/western sandhills to lower 30s
elsewhere. Highs Friday will range from 40 to 45 northern
panhandle/western sandhills to upper 40s around 50 elsewhere.
Similar ranges but different distribution Saturday with readings
generally 40 to 45 west of Hwy 83, 45 to 50 further east.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Ensemble guidance is in good agreement depicting a progressive
flow regime with a brief period of low amplitude ridging over
the High Plains, followed by a closed low moving out of the
PacNW and brushing by the region to the north, then a return to
more ridging over the Rockies. The overall flavor of this will
be unsettled weather with potential for showers just about each
day through the first part of next week, with a gradual return
to temperatures much closer to seasonal normals.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

VFR conditions are expected this afternoon through the overnight
for most locations. Some light precipitation may move into far
southwest Nebraska, impacting KIML terminal. Light rain,
possibly light snow could reduce visibilities and bring a brief
period of some MVFR or lower conditions in the early morning
hours. Winds will be breezy through mid afternoon with gust up
to 25 kts from the northwest, then winds begin to diminish by
this evening, becoming light and variable.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...Gomez