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000
FXUS64 KLCH 092336
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
636 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

A very active scenario is anticipated tonight through Wednesday
as a strong storm system moves across the region.

After a morning of very gusty winds along the I-10 corridor south
of a weak boundary winds have calmed to under 20kts. Beaumont and
Lake Charles were both gusting over 45kts for a short period while
locations such as DeRidder were under 10. The wind adv has been
cancelled early.

A cold front is roughly stretching from SW Texas across Northern
Arkansas to the Great Lakes this afternoon with a warm and humid
air mass in place toward the Gulf Coast. A vigorous upper low is
near El Paso with upper divergence well ahead of the system
providing support for convection in East TX. A surface low is also
noted south of the TX Hill Country.

Through this evening convection over East TX will continue
east with some potentially moving into the local region. SVR WX
is not out of the question with this initial round, however
early tomorrow is the main show.

Wednesday morning aforementioned upper low and surface low will
continue east with best dynamics moving into SE TX and LA. Another
round of convection is expected to develop. Ample cape, low lvl
moisture, and srh will combined to produce a threat of all modes
of SVR WX including excessive rainfall. Guidance indicates a QLCS
with individual cells ahead of the line developing early Wed and
sweeping through the region by afternoon. Areas most likely to be
impacted are locations north of I-10 and generally east of the
Sabine, however the whole region has a risk of severe wx.
Training of cells is most likely across the lakes through Cen LA
with a flood watch already in effect. 2-6 inches will be possible
with localized higher amounts. Lesser amounts are anticipated
closer the I-10 corridor to the coast.

Gusty south to southeast winds are expected ahead of the squall
line with tides running 1 to 2 feet above MHHW at high tide. A
coastal flood adv has been issued for the coastal areas. The tide
lvls may still be running high at the time of the 2nd high tide in
the afternoon across south central LA.

High pressure will build in behind the cold front Wednesday night
into Thursday with gusty northwest winds expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Monday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

High pressure will move across the region Friday then shift east
of the area for the weekend. While cool and slightly below normal
temperatures may occur Friday morning, warming and moistening is
expected as the ridge departs and the onshore flow resumes.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

A messy weather pattern bringing all modes of hazards (wind/low
ceilings/reduced vis/etc.) will persist through the forecast
period, with conditions improving through the later half of
tomorrow. For tonight, mainly scattered showers with a few
thunderstorms are expected, with both showers and thunderstorms
likely continuing to cause some reductions in VIS overnight. MVFR
to IFR ceilings and occasional gusts will continue as well. Early
tomorrow prior to sunrise a squall line will take shape to our
west and eject west to east across the region. This will result in
several hours of heavy rain, strong gusty winds, low ceilings,
reduced VIS, as well as the potential for hail and tornadoes.
Conditions will improve west to east through the afternoon and
evening hours.

17


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 337 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

A tight pressure gradient will continue to produce moderate to
strong south/southeast winds into Wednesday ahead of line of
thunderstorms that will sweep through during the morning and
afternoon. High pressure will build in Wednesday night into
Thursday with strong offshore winds expected. Light winds are
anticipated by Friday as high pressure moves overhead then to the
east of the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  64  80  53  74 /  90  90  10   0
LCH  69  80  56  76 /  80  80   0   0
LFT  72  81  59  76 /  60  90   0   0
BPT  69  82  55  78 /  90  60   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for LAZ027>033.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ033-044-045-
     055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 AM to 2 PM CDT Wednesday for
     LAZ073-074.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for
     LAZ252>254.

TX...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for TXZ180-259-260.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ515-516-615-
     616.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 AM to 2 PM CDT Wednesday for
     TXZ615.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ430-432-
     435-436.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM CDT Wednesday for GMZ430-
     432-435-436.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ450-452-455-
     470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...17