Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 190859
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
359 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

The axis of the upper level trough that brought the most recent cold
front through the region is now east of the Appalachian Mountains
and headed to the Atlantic Ocean. Surface high following this system
is currently near the Aklatex and will continue south to the
northern Gulf Coast this evening. This will lend to a cool but
pretty spectacular day. Guidance spread for highs today is
relatively small, thus stuck with deterministic NBM. Moving into the
overnight period, surface high will be right along the AL and FL
panhandles. This, along with strong radiational cooling from light
winds and clear skies, would lead to cooler temps. However, upper
level ridge will already be moving in from the west which should
counter cooling enough to result in lows slightly warmer than they
are this morning. Slight amplification of the of that ridge on
Wednesday will bring temps back to climatological normals.

MEFFER

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

A cutoff upper low currently centered over Southern California will
begin tracking east as deep trough now over the eastern US moves
offshore. Model evolution of this feature suggests that the closed
low will open up into more of a shortwave trough as it tracks east
across the southern tier of the country. Operational global models
are quite close in timing and placement of this system, with it
tracking across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Friday. As showers
and thunderstorms develop along the appendant cold front, will have
to monitor for severe weather. Model soundings suggest a strong warm
nose for the northern 2/3rd of the CWA will keep any storms from
being surface based. Elevated instability and very low wbz values (8-
10kft) could support hail. Shear dropping off while instability
increases isn`t a conduce setup. The only area in the CWA where
there may be any real chance for severe storms appears to be right
along the LA coastline where surface temps could be warm enough to
aide storms in being surface based.

Benign weather returns this weekend as the shortwave shifts east and
zonal flow develops aloft. Near to above normal temps with no rain
in the forecast for that period.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period. Such dry
airmass in place will limit cloud cover to just minimal cirrus seen
from time to time. Wind field will break down today as surface ridge
to the north settles in aloft. Thus, expect mostly light and
variable with little if any flight concerns through the cycle.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

Most recent cold front that moved through is now well south of the
local area, almost down to the Yucatan Peninsula. Surface ridge
behind that boundary is currently centered near the Arklatex will
continue southward today, reaching the northern Gulf Coast later
this evening. As it does so, the local pressure gradient will
drastically weaken which will diminish ongoing elevated winds. Thus,
will carry on current short-term marine hazards in place, both of
which fall off before noon today.

The nearby surface high will slide east over the next few days which
will bring the return of onshore winds. Expect them to remain there
for the majority of the week. Should begin to see a gradual increase
in winds/seas in the latter half of the week as a shortwave tracks
across the southeastern US. Low-end small craft conditions will be
possibly leading up to and after this system passes as the pressure
gradient supports those wind conditions.

MEFFER
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  62  38  70  48 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  65  43  73  52 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  63  41  71  51 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  60  47  70  55 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  61  42  69  51 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  63  39  71  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for LAZ034>037-039-
     071.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ530-532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for MSZ068>071-077.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...ME


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