Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 120455
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1155 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

Pretty quiet conditions expected through the short term as high
pressure gradually shifts eastward allowing southeasterly winds to
take hold of the area. The southeasterly winds will gradually
bring moisture back into the local area. Dewpoints are still low
enough that we should see efficient radiative cooling tonight,
with lows falling into the 40s generally along/north of the
I-10/12 corridor and into the 50s south of the interstate.

More significant warming trend begins tomorrow as the onshore flow
becomes more established. As highs warm into the mid to upper 70s
across much of the area and lows only fall into the 50s area wide
Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

Upper shortwave still looks to pass through the region Wednesday
with little fanfare. A few showers could sneak into coastal
portions of southeast Louisiana, but for the most part the
isolated to widely scattered convection should remain over the
Gulf.

With continued influx of more humid air from the Gulf, overnight
lows will struggle to fall much below 65 across most of the area.
Have bumped the NBM lows up a couple degrees toward the 50th
percentile for Wednesday night due to expected higher dewpoints as
a result of the continued return flow. The continued moisture
influx could also result in the development of advection fog
across the coastal waters by Wednesday night as dewpoints are
currently forecast to be nearing or exceeding the near shore water
temperatures, which are currently sitting in the low to mid 60s.
The fog potential will exist each night through at least Thursday
night.

Switching gears a bit to focus on rain chances, it still looks
like a much more amplified pattern will be taking shape by
Thursday with a deep trough/low over the western conus and
ridging in the east. Locally this will lead a gradual transition
to SW to NE upper flow across the local area. At the same time, a
mid- level shortwave will move with the main flow through the
middle Mississippi Valley. While the best forcing appears to be
north of the local area, given ample low level moisture, expect to
see at least scattered showers popping up through the day, with
potential for a few thunderstorms. Not expecting anything too
strong, though, as lapse rates really don`t look supportive of
sustained stronger updrafts.

By Friday a cold front will try to drop southeastward and
technically may make it into the local area, but expect it to slow
down/stall before clearing the area as the boundary becomes
parallel to the upper flow. While there won`t be much of a
temperature change associated with the boundary, it will still
serve as a focus for convection especially during the afternoon
hours Friday with the benefit of daytime heating to help
destabilize the low levels. Currently carrying 60-70 POPs across
northern areas closer to the boundary with 40-50 POPs across
southern areas. However, will mention that if the boundary sinks
farther south, POPs may need to be adjusted higher, especially
across southern areas.

Going into the weekend the overall trend has been for the closed
low in the desert southwest being absorbed into the larger upper
trough digging into the central plains and finally starting to
move eastward. However, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty
with exactly how this situation will play out. For now, the
forecast calls for the overall trough axis to move eastward and
force a cold front through the area on Sunday with cooler and
drier conditions moving in thereafter. However, if the low doesn`t
get absorbed as currently forecast, the elongated trough axis
would potentially lead to the front not clearing the area. Again,
for the time being, have stuck close to the NBM as confidence in
the specifics remains low.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

No concerns for at least the next 24 to 36 hours as VFR condtions
will persist. The one possible concern would be light patchy fog
but likely still too dry to see much if anything develop in the
morning. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with east-southeast
winds less than 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

Light southeast flow will persist through Wednesday as surface
ridging remains centered over the northeastern Gulf coast. Winds
are expected to increase back to near 15 knots on Thursday and
Friday in advance of an approaching low pressure system, and seas
will rise from 1 to 2 feet to 2 to 4 feet by Friday. However,
conditions will remain well below advisory levels with no serious
impacts to maritime operations expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  42  73  52  75 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  48  77  58  80 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  45  74  55  76 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  52  74  60  76 /   0   0  10  10
GPT  46  69  55  73 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  42  73  51  75 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....CAB


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