Text Products for FWS Issued by LZK

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
000
FNUS74 KLZK 150121
FWSLZK

Spot Forecast for PCS Steep fire...Usfs
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
821 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 2100 CDT on April 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (800) 482-8471 and ask for the fire
weather forecaster if you have any questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Surface winds out of the south-southwest around 10 mph with
surface wind gusts in excess of 20-25 mph through early Monday
morning (2AM CDT).

Then, surface winds will let up to between 5
and 10 mph out of the south-southwest from around 2 AM CDT early
Monday morning through later Monday morning.

Finally, surface winds will again ramp up and shift to out of the
south-southeast around 10 mph with surface wind gusts up to 20 mph
starting late Monday morning and lasting through the day on
Monday.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Min temperature.....72 at forecast start...Min 63.
Max humidity........73 percent at forecast start...Max 97 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Transport winds.....Southwest 14 to 17 mph.
Stability class.....6.
LVORI...............4.
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent).
Dispersion..........15.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at forecast start...max 6.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 700 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 1676 ft MSL.
Category Day........1.

TIME (CDT)      9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  PC  MC  PC  PC  MC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............72  70  69  68  68  67  66  65  65
RH..............73  78  84  84  84  87  90  93  93
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..8   9   10  9   8   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.16  17  18  17  16  13  13  11  11
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.16  17  17  17  17  16  16  15  14
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.MONDAY...

Max temperature.....Max 79.
Min humidity........Min 58 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Transport winds.....South 13 to 20 mph.
Stability class.....4.
LVORI...............4 early in the morning.
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Dispersion..........18 increasing to 43.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 2800 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 3786 ft MSL.
Category Day........3.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............64  64  65  66  70  72  74  76  77  77  77  77
RH..............97  97  93  93  81  73  71  64  62  62  62  62
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..7   7   8   7   7   8   8   8   8   9   9   10
20 FT wind gust.11  10  11  11  12  14  13  13  14  14  14  16
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.13  13  14  15  16  16  17  17  18  20  20  18
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10

.MONDAY NIGHT...

Min temperature.....Min 64.
Max humidity........Max 90 percent.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Transport winds.....South 14 to 23 mph increasing to around 24 mph
                    early in the morning.
Stability class.....5.
LVORI...............4.
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms.
Dispersion..........33 decreasing to 17 in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.04 inches.
Pcpn amount.........0.04 inches.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 2100 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 3077 ft MSL.
Category Day........3.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  CDY CDY CDY MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....    CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........    SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Temp............78  76  75  73  72  71  71  71  70  69  67  66
RH..............58  64  69  73  76  81  81  79  78  81  84  87
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..9   8   8   8   9   9   10  10  12  13  14  15
20 FT wind gust.16  14  14  14  14  16  17  17  19  21  23  25
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.16  15  14  14  14  14  15  16  18  21  23  24
Chc of pcpn (%).10  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30

.TUESDAY...

Max temperature.....Max 77.
Min humidity........Min 69 percent.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Transport winds.....South 24 to 28 mph.
Stability class.....4.
LVORI...............4 early in the morning.
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms in the morning. Showers through
                    the day. Chance of thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Dispersion..........34 increasing to 56 in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.06 inches.
Pcpn amount.........0.06 inches.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 2200 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 3195 ft MSL.
Category Day........4.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Temp............66  64  66  66  68  69  70  71  72  74  75  75
RH..............84  90  87  87  84  81  81  79  76  71  69  69
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..16  17  17  18  18  18  18  17  17  17  17  16
20 FT wind gust.26  28  29  30  30  30  29  28  28  28  28  26
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.24  24  25  26  28  28  28  28  28  28  26  24
Chc of pcpn (%).30  80  80  80  80  80  80  70  70  70  70  70

$$
Forecaster...C POPE
Requested by...Eric Stuart
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2410804.0/LZK
.DELDT 04/14/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL ericstuart73@yahoo.com