009
FXUS64 KMAF 280458
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1158 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

This afternoon, the dryline has mixed eastward, evidenced by
dewpoints in the 20s and lower 30s across much of the area, 40s
and lower 50s across far eastern zones, and dewpoints well into
the 60s across the Big Country and Concho Valley. The dryline will
continue its eastward progression the next several hours, but
will sharpen and begin retreating this evening. As the dryline
retreats westward into the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans
Pecos, a trough currently located over the Four Corners Region
will translate eastward, its Pacific front sweeping across the
area after sunset. This Pacific front is progged to meet the
retreating dryline, resulting in explosive convection across
eastern areas late this evening. CAMs have been consistent in
indicating convective initiation around 10 PM CDT, with storms
that develop expected to not only rapidly become severe, but also
move very quickly to the east as the Pacific front and dryline
surge eastward. All severe hazards will be possible, including
large hail, damaging winds, brief heavy rain, and a tornado threat
as low-level shear and helicity increase with the low-level jet.
There`s the potential for storms to move east of the area by the
time severe thresholds are reached, but the timing and location of
onset will make all the difference. The best chance will be from
roughly Snyder south- southwestward toward Big Lake, and certainly
areas to the east as the front/dryline move across Texas and
Oklahoma tonight.

In addition to the storm potential this evening, the same warm,
dry downsloping southwesterly winds that have mixed the dryline
eastward have resulted in critical fire weather conditions from
Southeast New Mexico southward to the Big Bend, where a Red Flag
Warning remains in effect through this evening. More on this can
be found in the Fire Weather Discussion below. Further, winds have
become strong across the Guadalupe Mountains and adjacent plains
where mixing is amplified beneath the aforementioned trough`s
attendant 700 mb jet. These winds will continue through the
evening before diminishing overnight, with High Wind Warnings and
Wind Advisories remaining in effect. As the trough translates
eastward tonight through Sunday morning, quiescent conditions will
return, with winds becoming lighter and shifting to the northwest
overnight as lows bottom out in the 40s northwest to 50s
elsewhere, and a few lower 60s across portions of the Stockton
Plateau and along the Rio Grande.

Winds remain westerly on Sunday in the wake of the departing
system as flow aloft remains quasi-zonal, with temperatures only
a degree or two cooler than today in the upper 70s to middle 80s
for most. Lows that follow Sunday night will be seasonably cool,
once again ranging from the upper 40s to around 60 degrees. After
this evening, storm chances are nil.

JP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Dry zonal flow aloft on Monday transitions into weak upper level
ridging Tuesday, with a thermal ridge axis setting up over far
West Texas. This supports above normal temperatures both
afternoons, with highs in the upper 80s/low 90s on Monday and
mostly 90s on Tuesday. Surface winds switch more southerly on
Tuesday with lee troughing to the north, allowing decent moisture
to push back up into the region. This will play a key roll on
Wednesday as a shortwave trough embedded in the upper ridge moves
across, and afternoon convection may develop off the dryline set
up somewhere over our CWA. Recent model runs have pushed the
better moisture and storm chances further east, but there remains
at least the possibility of some showers/storms Wednesday evening
for the Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos. As this system moves
out, a deepening upper level low will trek across the Central
Plains, shooting a cold front down into the area late
Thursday/early Friday. Temperatures will fall behind the front,
but are likely to remain near normal for the beginning of May to
finish out the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

VFR prevails with west winds generally under 15 kts through the
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Strong 20ft winds and critically low humidity today have warranted
a Red Flag Warning for SE New Mexico, the Big Bend, and the
western higher terrain where RFTIs are 6-7 today. ERCs are in the
50th-75th percentile but fuel moisture remains near normal except
for the highest terrain where fuels are dry. While not in the same
location as the Red Flag Warning, storms may develop this evening
across the far eastern Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos, some
possibly severe, that may bring frequent lightning and gusty and
erratic winds. Even as winds die down after sunset, overnight
recovery will be poor across the south and west with fair to good
out east. Humidity will fall to critical levels again Sunday but
lighter 20ft winds should limit fire weather concerns into Monday.
Fuels will continue to dry Tuesday and Wednesday with low
afternoon humidity both days and increasing dry westerly winds.
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected both days, and
depending on fuel moisture and ERCs, products may be needed for at
least one of these days for the western zones. By Thursday, a
cold front moving down should bring an uptick in moisture and
cooler weather, limiting fire weather concerns for the remainder
of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               54  82  52  89 /  30   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 49  82  51  87 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   60  88  58  92 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            56  84  55  91 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           48  72  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    47  79  48  84 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                    43  76  41  83 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     54  82  53  87 /  20   0   0   0
Odessa                   55  81  54  88 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                     51  84  53  90 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Sunday for
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains.

NM...High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....88
AVIATION...29