543
FXUS64 KMAF 272024
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
324 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

This afternoon, the dryline has mixed eastward, evidenced by
dewpoints in the 20s and lower 30s across much of the area, 40s and
lower 50s across far eastern zones, and dewpoints well into the 60s
across the Big Country and Concho Valley. The dryline will continue
its eastward progression the next several hours, but will sharpen
and begin retreating this evening. As the dryline retreats westward
into the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos, a trough
currently located over the Four Corners Region will translate
eastward, its Pacific front sweeping across the area after sunset.
This Pacific front is progged to meet the retreating dryline,
resulting in explosive convection across eastern areas late this
evening. CAMs have been consistent in indicating convective
initiation around 10 PM CDT, with storms that develop expected to
not only rapidly become severe, but also move very quickly to the
east as the Pacific front and dryline surge eastward. All severe
hazards will be possible, including large hail, damaging winds,
brief heavy rain, and a tornado threat as low-level shear and
helicity increase with the low-level jet. There`s the potential for
storms to move east of the area by the time severe thresholds are
reached, but the timing and location of onset will make all the
difference. The best chance will be from roughly Snyder south-
southwestward toward Big Lake, and certainly areas to the east as
the front/dryline move across Texas and Oklahoma tonight.

In addition to the storm potential this evening, the same warm, dry
downsloping southwesterly winds that have mixed the dryline eastward
have resulted in critical fire weather conditions from Southeast New
Mexico southward to the Big Bend, where a Red Flag Warning remains
in effect through this evening. More on this can be found in the
Fire Weather Discussion below. Further, winds have become strong
across the Guadalupe Mountains and adjacent plains where mixing is
amplified beneath the aforementioned trough`s attendant 700 mb jet.
These winds will continue through the evening before diminishing
overnight, with High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories remaining in
effect. As the trough translates eastward tonight through Sunday
morning, quiescent conditions will return, with winds becoming
lighter and shifting to the northwest overnight as lows bottom out
in the 40s northwest to 50s elsewhere, and a few lower 60s across
portions of the Stockton Plateau and along the Rio Grande.

Winds remain westerly on Sunday in the wake of the departing system
as flow aloft remains quasi-zonal, with temperatures only a degree
or two cooler than today in the upper 70s to middle 80s for most.
Lows that follow Sunday night will be seasonably cool, once again
ranging from the upper 40s to around 60 degrees. After this evening,
storm chances are nil.

JP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Dry zonal flow aloft on Monday transitions into weak upper level
ridging Tuesday, with a thermal ridge axis setting up over far West
Texas. This supports above normal temperatures both afternoons, with
highs in the upper 80s/low 90s on Monday and mostly 90s on Tuesday.
Surface winds switch more southerly on Tuesday with lee troughing to
the north, allowing decent moisture to push back up into the region.
This will play a key roll on Wednesday as a shortwave trough embedded
in the upper ridge moves across, and afternoon convection may
develop off the dryline set up somewhere over our CWA. Recent model
runs have pushed the better moisture and storm chances further east,
but there remains at least the possibility of some showers/storms
Wednesday evening for the Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos. As
this system moves out, a deepening upper level low will trek across
the Central Plains, shooting a cold front down into the area late
Thursday/early Friday. Temperatures will fall behind the front, but
are likely to remain near normal for the beginning of May to finish
out the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Westerly to southwesterly winds will become gusty at all terminals
this afternoon into this evening, with the strongest gusts to
30-40kt expected to impact CNM/HOB. While localized blowing dust
will be possible, have not included mention at this time due to
low confidence in impacts at any given terminal. Winds diminish
overnight tonight, shifting to the west-northwest, before
returning to the west/west-southwest on Sunday. Thunderstorms late
this evening should remain to the east of MAF/FST, though a few
showers may be possible at MAF/HOB in the 00Z-03Z time frame.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Strong 20ft winds and critically low humidity today have warranted a
Red Flag Warning for SE New Mexico, the Big Bend, and the western
higher terrain where RFTIs are 6-7 today. ERCs are in the 50th-75th
percentile but fuel moisture remains near normal except for the
highest terrain where fuels are dry. While not in the same location
as the Red Flag Warning, storms may develop this evening across the
far eastern Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos, some possibly
severe, that may bring frequent lightning and gusty and erratic
winds. Even as winds die down after sunset, overnight recovery will
be poor across the south and west with fair to good out east.
Humidity will fall to critical levels again Sunday but lighter 20ft
winds should limit fire weather concerns into Monday. Fuels will
continue to dry Tuesday and Wednesday with low afternoon humidity
both days and increasing dry westerly winds. Elevated fire weather
conditions are expected both days, and depending on fuel moisture
and ERCs, products may be needed for at least one of these days for
the western zones. By Thursday, a cold front moving down should
bring an uptick in moisture and cooler weather, limiting fire
weather concerns for the remainder of the week and into the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               54  82  52  89 /  30   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 49  82  51  87 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   60  88  58  92 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            56  84  55  91 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           48  72  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    47  79  48  84 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                    43  76  41  83 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     54  82  53  87 /  20   0   0   0
Odessa                   55  81  54  88 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                     51  84  53  90 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Sunday for
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-
     Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson
     County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-
     Presidio Valley-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Eastern Culberson
     County.

NM...High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Chaves Plains-
     Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....88
AVIATION...84