709
FXUS64 KMEG 131949
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
249 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Unsettled weather will continue through Tuesday as an upper level
disturbance and cold front slowly progress across the region. A
few strong storms are possible late tonight and again in the
afternoon hours on Tuesday. Dry conditions will return on
Wednesday as we are in between weather systems. Showers and
thunderstorms will return Thursday and persist through early
Saturday. A mostly dry weekend with near normal temperatures is
expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

A cool and cloudy afternoon across the Mid-South. Heavy cloud
cover has persisted this afternoon beneath southwest flow aloft.
The latest KNQA radar sweep reveals just a few light showers,
mainly over portions of northwest Tennessee. The latest GOES east
Water Vapor Imagery shows a robust MCS across the Florida
Panhandle, with another MCS over southeast Texas. A compact upper
low was also analyzed near the Missouri and Kansas border.

Mainly dry conditions will persist through early evening across
the entire Mid-South. Thereafter, a shortwave will eject from the
base of upper low and nearly phase with a southern stream wave
coming out of the ArkLaTex. As it does, two areas of scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop this evening. A few of the
storms could be strong to severe, as up to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and
up to 50 knots of deep layer shear will be on hand. The main
threats with any strong storms will be hail and gusty winds, as
mid level lapse rates will approach 7.5 C/km and DCAPE values
will be nearing 800 J/kg. The threat of strong storms should end
as storms approach the Tennessee River before sunrise Tuesday
morning.

The upper low and associated surface low will push slowly through
the Mid-South late tomorrow morning through tomorrow evening.
Instability will be maximized ahead of the front or for areas east
of the Mississippi River, where up to 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE will be
available. Strong storms could form along the cold front by early
afternoon and produce hail and gusty winds. Storms will likely
push east of the Tennessee River before midnight.

Dry conditions will return on Wednesday and persist into much of
Thursday as shortwave ridging builds in overhead. The weather will
become unsettled once again late Thursday, as several shortwaves
translate through southwest flow aloft. A marginal threat of
strong storms will likely exist during this period as 1000 J/kg of
SBCAPE will be available and up to 30 knots of shear.

Mainly dry conditions are expected this weekend as we remain under
a weak ridge. Did carry a 20 to 30 PoP each day, as some diurnal
showers and thunderstorms may bubble up. A weak and mostly dry cold
front looks to move through the Lower Mississippi Valley late
Sunday into Monday as a large trough digs across the Ohio Valley.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Low level cloud decks will slowly lift to a thick MVFR deck around
1,500ft. MVFR will prevail through this afternoon ahead of an
anticipated cold frontal passage. This front will bring pre-
frontal cig lowering to IFR (around 700ft) and LIFR around (500ft),
a wind shift, and TSRA to all sites. Tempos were placed in each
TAF for most likely timing of storm arrival. Post frontal cigs
will remain IFR and LIFR until shortly after sunrise as gradual
raises will begin to lift to VFR by tomorrow afternoon.

DNM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...DNM