683
FXUS62 KMFL 131722
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
122 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

...Hot Conditions Continue Rest of Week...
...High Risk Of Rip Currents East Coast Beaches Through Tuesday...
...A Few Strong Storms Possible Northern Interior/Northeast Areas
Late This Afternoon Into Early This Evening...

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1248 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

High pressure over the Lake Okeechobee this afternoon will move
slowly southward through South Florida tonight into Tuesday, as
the MCS continues to move eastward from the Southeastern United
States into the Western Atlantic waters. At the same time, a mid
to upper level low will be developing over the Southeastern United
States.

This weather pattern will allow for the winds over South Florida
to become more southerly tonight into Tuesday while the 725-750 mb
cap remains in place. Therefore, most areas will remain dry through
Tuesday, but could still see a few showers or thunderstorms over
the Lake okeechobee region into the NE Portions of Palm Beach
County this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon due to the
collision of the sea breezes and lake breeze.

One of two storms could also become strong especially where the
sea breezes and lake breeze collide due to the 500 mb temps being
in the -8 to -9C. The primary impacts from the strong storms will
be gusty winds, hail, and lightning strikes.

The other major story is the heat over South Florida. Lows tonight
will only be able to fall down into the 70s over the interior
areas to around 80 over the metro areas. However, the heat index
readings over the east coast metro areas will only get down into
the mid to upper 80s overnight, due to the increase in humidity.

Highs on Tuesday will be in the lower to mid 90s over the metro
areas to around 100 over the interior areas. With higher humidity,
the heat indices will be in the 105 to 108 range over most areas,
except 100 to 105 range over the east coast metro areas. If these
forecast heat indices continue in later forecast runs, then a heat
advisory may be needed for portions of South Florida for Tuesday.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 207 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

A mid-level low will become cut off from the mean flow aloft mid to
late week as it moves from the Mississippi River valley across the
Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. The associated surface cold
front will pinch the high pressure over much of the peninsula of
Florida south and east by late week. The frontal boundary could
enter south central Florida Wednesday into Thursday, briefly
allowing a window for some increased rain chances but the weak front
lacks the support for more vigorous activity which could provide
more substantial relief from the heat.

A window for hazardous heat will open Wednesday that could linger
into the weekend. Much of southern Florida could experience heat
necessitating at least a Heat Advisory. Overnight low temperatures
along the east coast metro mid to late week could struggle to fall
below 80 degrees and even portions of the Naples metro may not fall
below the upper 70s. This could lead to a period of several days
where relentless sunshine, building heat, and a lack of relief
overnight could lead to escalating heat illness risk.

By the weekend, the mid-level low begins to exit into the Atlantic
off the Mid-Atlantic states with the potential for a southward
advancement of the associated front. If the front is able to move
into the area, it could provide a small bit of relief from the heat.
If the front stalls to the north, the excessive heat risk could
linger through the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

The winds will swing from a southeast direction this afternoon to more
of a southerly direction late tonight into Tuesday over the Taf sites.
Wind speeds should be around 15 knots this afternoon decreasing to
5 to 10 knots tonight. Most TAF sites remain dry except for KPBI with
VCTS from 21 to 00Z. Ceiling and Vis remain in VFR conditions, but
could fall down into MVFR or even IFR conditions at KPBI taf site
with thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1248 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

The winds will swing from a southeast direction this afternoon to
more of a south southwest direction Tuesday into the upcoming
weekend. Wind speeds will be 10 to 15 knots over most South
Florida waters, except for the Atlantic waters where they will be
15 to 25 knots tonight into Tuesday.

The Gulf seas will be 1 to 3 feet tonight through rest of this
week. The Atlantic seas will be 2 to 5 feet tonight into Tuesday
before decreasing to 1 to 3 feet for the middle to end of this
week. Therefore, an SCA will remain in place over the Atlantic
waters tonight into Tuesday

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1248 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

The southeast to south winds will allow for the continue threat of
Rip Currents through tonight along the east coast beaches of South
Florida. The winds will become more south southwest on Tuesday,
but due to the low time in the morning and the last several days
of the persistent southeast winds, the threat of rip currents
should continue into Tuesday. Therefore, The High Risk of Rip
Currents along the east coast beaches of South Florida will
continue through Tuesday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            90  80  93  80 /  20  10  10   0
West Kendall     92  79  95  78 /  10  10  10   0
Opa-Locka        90  80  93  79 /  20  10  10   0
Homestead        89  80  91  79 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  88  81  91  80 /  20  10  10  10
N Ft Lauderdale  89  81  92  79 /  20  10  10  10
Pembroke Pines   90  80  93  80 /  20  10  10   0
West Palm Beach  89  78  94  77 /  30  30  20  10
Boca Raton       88  80  93  79 /  20  20  10  10
Naples           92  79  92  79 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Tuesday
     for AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BNB
LONG TERM....RAG
AVIATION...BNB