747
FNUS76 KMFR 192303
FWSMFR

Spot Forecast for Dry 23 Rx...USFS
National Weather Service MEDFORD OR
403 PM PDT Sun May 19 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 PDT on May 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Dry-ish air has moved into the region today (Sunday),
and as high pressure builds on Monday, conditions will warm and dry.
That said, full or nearly full humidity recoveries are expected
each night. Then on Tuesday afternoon a weak trough will pass over
the region. This is a medium-to-high confidence forecast for
small storm total rain amounts, reaching between a tenth and two
tenths of an inch. This trough will lead to some increased winds
west winds on Tuesday and will be strongest on Wednesday. I
suspect that the trough will be weak enough that winds won`t be
overly strong though, and I stayed close to or slightly below the
mean wind forecast available. So, If the burn requires extra
sensitivity to winds, let us know above what speeds the burn is
sensitive to and we can let you know what the chances are that
threshold is exceeded.


.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 64 degrees.
Min humidity........Around 33 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northwest 1 to 3 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest 3 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......6600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 10 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.

.MONDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 40 degrees.
Max humidity........Around 90 percent.
Eye level winds.....North 1 to 2 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........North 4 to 7 mph in the evening becoming
                    2 to 5 mph.
Mixing height.......200 to 600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 8 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). 25% chance of rain
                    showers in the late morning, increasing to a 75%
chance by the evening.
Max temperature.....Around 60 degrees.
Min humidity........Around 60 percent.
Eye level winds.....East at 1 to 2 mph in the morning becoming west
around 1 to 3 mph in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........East at 1 to 4 mph in the morning becoming west
at 3 to 7 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 8 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.

$$
Forecaster...MILES
Requested by...Josh Collins
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414666.0/MFR
.DELDT 05/19/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL joshua.d.collins@usda.gov