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000
FXUS62 KMHX 242032
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
432 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front with limited moisture will approach the area today
and cross the region tonight. High pressure builds back into
the area from the north on Thursday and eventually slides
offshore this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Wednesday...A series of subtle mid-level
shortwaves moving through cyclonic flow aloft will push across
the area through the short term. The first is currently moving
across the region bringing a band of light showers, which is
being enhanced by the region being located in the favorable
right entrance region of the upper jet. The showers are
currently located across for northern sections and will slide
swd across the area this afternoon and evening. Guidance shows
the coverage of showers diminishing as it pushes southward this
afternoon as it moves away from better upper level support but
could see some enhancement this evening as the assoc prefrontal
trough and sea breeze converges near the Crystal coast. There is
significant dry air below 600-700 mb so rainfall amounts will
remain quite low, most likely less than a tenth of an inch.
MUCAPE remains less than 100 J/Kg across the region with little
shear in place so continue to keep thunder out of the forecast.
Another mid-level shortwave and attendant cold front will push
across the region late tonight with winds becoming nly but the
airmass will be too dry to produce any additional showers. Skies
will be variably cloudy overnight but sufficient breaks
expected to allow min temps in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
As of 345 PM Wednesday...Sfc high pressure ridges in from the
north Thursday with another subtle shortwave pushing through
which will bring a north to northeast wind surge in the
afternoon with gusts around 25-30 mph across the OBX and 15-20
mph inland. No additional precip is expected but onshore flow
is will likely bring low STCU across eastern sections of the FA.
A wide range of temps across the are with clouds and onshore
flow keeping temps in the low to mid 60s across the OBX to mid
70s across southern sections.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 400 AM Tuesday...Fairly quiet stretch in the long term
with high pressure dominating.

High pressure lingers to our north Thursday night, and will
remain near the eastern seaboard through the end of the work
week, aided by omega blocking aloft. Remainder of the long term
remains uneventful due to the high. Low moving through the
eastern US in the weekend will encounter this stubborn high, and
some uncertainty remains on if it will be pushed north around
the high, or if the high will give way. If the low moves north,
we will have less chances of precip in the weekend. If the low
is able to shift the high offshore, we will see increased
chances of precip. No mentionable PoPs with this update for
Saturday as high remaining stubborn looks to be the most likely
outcome. High will shift to our south in the weekend, and
easterly flow will gradually veer to become southwesterly at the
start of next week. Another frontal system will be moving
through mid week next week. How the high behaves will play a
role on how far south the higher moisture along the cold front
extends. As of right now, looks to be mostly dry with higher
precip chances expected in AKQ`s CWA and further north. Tuesday
will be the warmest day of the long term (mid-upper 80s inland),
aided by SW flow with the high to our east.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through Thursday/...
As of 3 PM Wednesday...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
TAF period. A mid level shortwave and pre-frontal trough pushing
across the region this afternoon and evening bringing a band of
light showers. Cigs with the showers will remain above 6 kt ft
but could see very short duration MVFR vsbys if heavier showers
develop. A cold front will push across rtes late tonight with
winds becoming nly. Another surge in nly to nely winds will
develop Thursday afternoon bringing gusts to around 15-20 kt at
the TAF sites but could be as high as 25-30 kt across the OBX.
MVFR STCU is expected to develop along the coast and push
westward across the sounds. Guidance currently keeps lower cigs
east of the TAF sites but could briefly make it as far west as
EWN.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 315 AM Monday...Pred VFR conditions expected through
Sunday with high pressure dominating the long term.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 4 PM Wednesday...A prefrontal trough is currently pushing
across the waters and seeing N to NW winds around 10 kt or less
across the northern waters and SW 15-20 kt from around Oregon
Inlet southward. The trough will push weaken as it pushes swd
with evening allowing winds to become less than 15 kt across the
waters overnight. A cold front will then push across the waters
late tonight allowing winds to become Nly around 10-15 kt
Thursday morning with a stronger surge around 15-25 kt
developing in the afternoon. Seas around 4-7 ft this afternoon
will briefly subside to 2-5 ft late tonight but will rebuild to
3-6 ft Thursday afternoon as the stronger surge develops. Have
adjusted the timing of the SCA across the northern waters and
sounds/Alligator River since present conditions have dropped
below criteria and are not expected to reach it again until
tomorrow afternoon. Will maintain through the overnight for the
coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet as SCA conditions will
likely continue through this evening and short window before
rebuilding Thursday afternoon.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 400 AM Tuesday...Cold front will be offshore of the
Crystal Coast and SOBX for the start of the long term. Behind
the cold front, we will see a surge of northerly winds Thursday
afternoon/evening. Pamlico Sound has a Small Craft Advisory out
until 6Z Friday due to this surge. Duration of the higher winds
will be shorter for northern sounds.Alligator River, preventing
the issuance of a SCA at this time. Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
should remain below SCA criteria. We will also see waves
picking up from the deepening low in the North Atlantic. This
will allow Small Craft Advisory conditions to continue for
coastal waters until 6Z Friday. The exception is waters off of
Hatteras Island and Ocracoke, where high waves at or above 6 ft
will linger a bit longer, until 0Z Saturday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon to 11 PM EDT Thursday for
     AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Thursday to midnight EDT
     Thursday night for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon Thursday to 2 AM EDT Friday for
     AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...SK/RJ
MARINE...SK/RJ