048
FNUS72 KMHX 271346
FWSMHX

Spot Forecast for SD...USMC
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
946 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on April 27.
If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast, contact the National Weather
Service in Newport at (252)223-2328.

.DISCUSSION...
The risk of significant fire weather concerns is LOW over the
next few days.

A coastal trough will move inland today with a 10-15% chance of
showers, mainly across southwestern sections of Eastern NC.
However, the chance of wetting rainfall is <5%. Northeasterly winds
today will become southeasterly this evening. Vent rates will steadily
improve over the coming days, but will remain below 80,000 mph-ft due
to a lack of stronger transport winds. Min RHs today reach to around
50-55%.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........53 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 6 to 9 mph.
Mixing Height.......Max 4600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 10 to 13 mph.
Vent Rate...........Max 50714 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 3.
ADI.................Max 57.
Stability class.....2.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........30.37 to 30.41 inHg.

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........61  61  60  58  56  55  55  53
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............67  70  71  71  72  72  71  70
RH..............70  62  60  57  55  53  55  57
20 FT wind dir..E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..6   7   8   8   9   9   9   9
20 FT wind gust.9   9   14  14  14  14  14  14
Mix hgt (kft)...2.6 3.5 4.0 4.6 4.6 4.2 3.9 3.5
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.12  13  12  10  10  12  10  10
LVORI...........3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............38  54  57  42  42  45  38  37
Haines index....4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3
Vrate mph-ft/1K.30  44  48  49  49  51  40  39
Sfc pres (in)...040 041 041 040 039 038 037 037

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 56.
Max humidity........95 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 8 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing Height.......Min 400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 6 to 13 mph.
Vent Rate...........Min 2185 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 8.
ADI.................Min 3.
Stability class.....4.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........30.28 to 30.36 inHg.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........51  50  49  46  44  41  40  38  38  39  41  39
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............68  66  64  62  61  60  59  59  59  58  57  57
RH..............61  65  71  78  83  84  87  87  90  92  95  93
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..8   7   5   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.14  9   9   9   9   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...2.9 2.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.SE  E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.12  13  12  10  9   9   9   7   7   7   6   6
LVORI...........1   3   3   4   4   5   5   6   6   6   8   6
ADI.............42  17  8   7   6   6   4   3   3   3   3   3
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Vrate mph-ft/1K.34  25  5   5   4   4   4   3   3   3   2   2
Sfc pres (in)...036 036 036 036 036 036 034 032 030 029 028 028

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 8 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Mixing Height.......Max 4500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 14 mph.
Vent Rate...........Max 46575 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 6.
ADI.................Max 57.
Stability class.....3.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........30.20 to 30.31 inHg.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........36     30     23     22     26     19
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............58     62     69     74     76     76
RH..............92     84     63     53     51     49
20 ft wind......SE 2   E 3    SE 4   S 6    S 8    S 8
20 ft wind gust.5      5      5      9      9      9
Mix hgt (ft)....400    600    3200   4500   4500   3700
Transport wind..SE 6   S 6    S 6    SW 7   S 8    S 13
LVORI...........6      5      2      1      1      1
ADI.............3      6      24     38     46     55
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
Vrate mph-ft/1K.2      4      19     32     40     46
Sfc pres (in)...30.29  30.31  30.31  30.29  30.26  30.22

$$
Forecaster...Simms
Requested by...Barrett Baker
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412600.0/MHX
.DELDT 04/27/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL norton.baker@usmc.mil