Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 202004
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
304 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD...AS STEADY
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AND CAPS OFF THE
AREA. 500 MB RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME.

DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND SUNSET...ALONG WITH LAKE
BREEZE. SOME MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH A WEAK 500 MB VORTICITY
MAXIMUM. SOUTH WINDS WILL LINGER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...BECOMING
SOMEWHAT LIGHTER LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. MAY SEE FOG IN LOW
LYING AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS DURING THIS TIME...WITH HIGHER DEW
POINTS PUSHING INTO THE AREA.

925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS FROM MODELS SUGGEST LOWS REMAINING IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST
AREAS. LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD COOL
THINGS DOWN ALONG THE SHORE.

.LONG TERM...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE AND HOTTEST PERIOD UNTIL NEXT
WEEKEND AS MULTIPLE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
PRODUCE MOIST SOUTHERLY WINDS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND PLENTY
OF ENERGY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT MAY BECOMER SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO THE THE UPPER 80S...WITH
A FEW AREAS AROUND 90 DEGREES. HIGH HUMIDTY AND HEAT WILL COMBINE
TO CREATE AFTERNOON MAXIMUM HEAT INDICIES IN THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA...INCLUDING MILWAUKEE AND THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES.
THESE VALUES APPROACH...BUT ARE BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.  EXPECT ONE-
HALF INCH OR MORE OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  SOME AREAS
SHOULD RECEIVE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH WITH
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR
TO THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...BRINGING WITH IT DRIER AIR.

FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TAF SITES TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND 02Z
MONDAY. LAKE BREEZE MAY REACH MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO THROUGH 02Z MONDAY...THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
HAPPENING. OTHERWISE...SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING.

THE SOUTH WINDS WILL LINGER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS TAF
SITES...AS WARM AND HUMID AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS
SHOULD WEAKEN A BIT LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. MORE MOIST AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA MAY BRING MVFR FOG AT SITES EXCEPT MILWAUKEE
FOR A FEW HOURS BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z MONDAY. FOR NOW...JUST USED VFR
CATEGORY FOG IN TAFS.

SHOULD SEE MORE SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AT MILWAUKEE AND
KENOSHA WITH LAKE BREEZE AFTER 21Z MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND LINGER INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 WILL PUSH OUT OVER THE COOL WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. SOME DENSE FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ADDED FOG OVER THE LAKE FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.

GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY GENERATE HIGH WAVES. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SLB



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