Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 112019
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
219 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of this afternoon...

The snow band has set up about a tier of counties farther south
than expected, focusing on Walworth, Racine and Kenosha counties.
It will continue to drop south through the afternoon.
Additionally, temps have warmed into the mid 30s across that area,
so plenty of melting on roadways is occurring. There could be some
icy conditions develop as temperatures fall this evening.

Tonight through Tuesday night...Forecast confidence is high.

Cold. Any lingering snow will exit out Racine/Kenosha county by
around 7 pm, then look for gusty northwest winds to usher in a
very cold airmass. The winds will remain strong and gusty through
Tuesday, settling down Tuesday night.  Wind chills late tonight
into early Tuesday morning will drop to around zero or a few
degrees below zero. The coldest night will be Tuesday night with
lows in the single digits to lower teens. Fortunately, this will
be under a narrow ridge axis, so winds will be light to calm.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...Forecast confidence is medium.

The NAM/ECMWF/Canadian all show a deepening low pressure system
taking a similar track to the system this afternoon, from southern
Minnesota to Indiana. There are some differences in timing, but
this one could bring an inch or two of snow to our northeast half
of the forecast area Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.
Mainly north and east of a Kenosha to Montello line, in Marquette
county. Areas from Madison and points south and west could stay
dry.

Thursday and Friday...Forecast confidence is medium.

We stay in this pesky northwest flow and there are some weak
pieces of energy that roll across the area. The guidance doesn`t
show any organization of concern, but we could see some flurries
or light snow from time to time. Little or no accum is expected.
Still cold through the end of the week.

Saturday and Sunday...Forecast confidence is low.

There is a lot of uncertainty for next weekend. The ECMWF is
suggesting a strong low pressure system will track just south of
the area, bringing a band of snow across southern Wisconsin. The
GFS is much farther north and faster with the low, with a solution
that is warmer and less impactful. The GFS would potentially have
rain and a mixture across the northern portion of the forecast
area. We`ll just have to wait for the model discontinuities to get
worked out before getting concerned.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...
Main snow band of concern associated with def zone of mid level
wave has set up across mainly the southern counties of WI with an
inch or two possible there. A period of snow will slide through
all of the area 21-00z though main concern will impact only the
KENW TAF with the steadiest snowfall and lowest visibilities. MVFR
cigs and cold advection will then prevail tonight into Tuesday.
LLVL RH progs do show some clearing potential Tuesday so some
breaks in the clouds possible.

&&

.MARINE...

The Gale Warning for strong northwest winds remains in place
through mid to late morning on Tuesday. Once that expires, a small
craft advisory will likely continue through Tuesday evening.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
     WIZ070>072.

LM...Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Tuesday for
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

Tonight/Tuesday and Aviation/Marine...Davis
Tuesday Night through Monday...Davis



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