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000
FXUS63 KMKX 240835
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
335 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH

POLAR HIGH PRESSURE AND FULL SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL TODAY. 925 MB
TEMPS AROUND 10C ON THE ECMWF YIELDS HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI. A COOL LAKE BREEZE WILL KEEP ERN WI IN THE
50S. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD TNT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE PLAINS SLOWLY APPROACHING. WARM...MOIST ADVECTION OVER THE
PLAINS TO JUST WEST OF THE MS RIVER WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS OVER THAT REGION LATER TODAY AND TNT. SRN WI WILL BE ON THE
NE PERIPHERY OF THE WARM ADVECTION...VIA MOST MODELS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE AGGRESSIVE NAM. MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE 700 MB WARM
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE DOES MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI LATE TNT WITH
VERY DRY AIR BELOW. MINOR ELEVATED CAPE IS NOTED ON THE FCST
SOUNDINGS SO PCPN COULD MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FAR WRN CWA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH
CENTRAL WI. DO NOT EXPECT ANY FROST TNT AS HIGH CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY LATE EVENING OR JUST BEYOND MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE ACROSS THIS
RIDGE WHICH WILL PRODUCE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THEIR FOCUS AND TRACK WILL BE ALONG THE 850MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE...WHICH WILL LINE UP FROM SOUTHERN MN TO EASTERN IA
TO NORTHERN IL AND MAY CLIP SOUTHWEST WI. THIS WILL MEAN SOUTHERN WI
WILL BE STUCK WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...COOL TEMPERATURES AND
LOTS OF CLOUDS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY DRIER OVER THE MKX FORECAST AREA FOR
THE WEEKEND. THUS...TRENDED TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTION VS. THE VERY
WET NAM WHICH SEEMS TO BE OVERDOING THE 850-700MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI...SW OF A LINE FROM THE DELLS TO MADISON TO
JANESVILLE. BEST TIME FOR THIS PRECIP WOULD BE WITH AN MCS OVER MN
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST AND CLIPPING SOME OF OUR AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

MEMORIAL DAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE THREE DAYS WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN
THE UPPER 60S...BUT IT ALSO HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER. THERE WILL BE A STRONG SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING SOUTHERN WI AS WELL AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET OVERHEAD. THIS IS ALSO THE TIME WHEN THE 850MB WARM FRONT
WILL BE NUDGING INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WISCONSIN...ALTHOUGH TIMING OF IT
GETTING NORTH OF THE MKX AREA IS UNCERTAIN. THE GFS MOVES IT INTO
NORTHERN WI ALREADY TUESDAY...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND
DELAYS IT UNTIL WED MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A GOOD DEAL
OF SURFACE AND ELEVATED CAPE WHILE THE WARM FRONT MOVES OVER THE
REGION. WITH DECENT SHEAR...CANNOT RULE OUT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE TIME OF DAY THESE MOVE ACROSS...WHICH IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME...
WILL HELP DETERMINE THE RISK OF SEVERE AS WELL. STAY TUNED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SUMMER WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. DRAWS WARM AIR INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER RIDGE AND PROBABLY REMAIN
SUNNY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS TIME PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALLOW LAKESHORE AREAS TO ENJOY HIGHS IN THE 80S AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TNT. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL
BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF A SHOWER FOR KMSN AROUND SUNRISE ON SAT BUT
CLOUD BASES WILL ONLY FALL TO 8-10.0 KFT. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS WITH
THE LIGHT SHOWERS IF THEY DO OCCUR.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MID MORNING.
HIGH WAVES WILL LINGER DUE TO THE OVERNIGHT BRISK NLY WINDS.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER WI AND LAKE MI TODAY AND
TNT. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ046-047-051-
     052-058>060-064-065-070.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MRC