Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 251459 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
959 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.UPDATE...

THERE COULD BE SOME LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
TODAY...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. STILL EXPECTING MID TO UPPER 80S UNDER 925
MB TEMPS OF 23-25 C...WITH A FEW SPOTS POSSIBLY CRACKING 90. IT
WILL BE A TAD COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE WINDS WILL TURN
ONSHORE FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. SOME FOG MAY TRY TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT AS THE HIGH BRINGS LIGHT TO CALM WINDS....BUT THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS OF A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK THAT COULD DISRUPT THE
FOG POTENTIAL.

MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP IN THE FAR WEST OR SOUTHWEST
LATER SUNDAY AS THE HIGH HEADS EAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
DRIER THOUGH...HOLDING ONTO THE HIGH A BIT LONGER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

EARLIER SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION UPSTREAM OVER WEST
CENTRAL WI DIED OUT AS IT MOVED INTO INCREASING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WI...REFLECTED IN CAP BETWEEN
800 MB AND 700 MB ON BLUE RIVER RAP FORECAST SOUNDING.

THE INHIBITION DOES LOWER IN A CORRIDOR COINCIDENT WITH THE
SURFACE FRONT WITH A FEW CELLS POPPING UP ALONG THE FRONT...BUT
THEY ARE WEAK AND SHORT-LIVED WITH THE CAP AND LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF UPPER SUPPORT WITH AREA UNDER THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF A 300 MB
JET MAXIMA AND CVA WITH THE SHORT WAVE DRIVING THE CONVECTION OVER
NE WI TO NRN LAKE MICHIGAN.

WITH HI-RES/RAPID UPDATE MODELS STILL SHOWING POTENTIAL OF
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A STORM OR TWO AS FRONT CROSSES
FORECAST AREA WILL KEEP A COLLABORATIVE SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE
FRONT...EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY 15Z THOUGH A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS A STRONG POSSIBILITY.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION BUT MODELS STILL SHOW 925
MB TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY. WILL KEEP UPPER 80S
HIGHS INLAND WITH A COOLING LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING BY EARLY
AFTERNOON HOLDING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG THE
LAKE.

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH...WITH MODELS DEPICTING A SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WITH A CONSENSUS POSITION OVER SRN
MN/NRN IA BY 12Z SUNDAY. BETTER RETURN FLOW STAYS WEST OF CWA
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...BUT WITH SOME OMEGA AND ELEVATED CAPE SHOWN
ON NAM DBQ FORECAST SOUNDINGS AFTER 09Z...THOUGH LITTLE OMEGA AND
CAPE ON BLUE RIVER SOUNDING... WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER
09Z IN THE FAR SW CWA. LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A 500 MB RIDGE AXIS BUILDING
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING
SLOWLY EASTWARD MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING SEVERAL
WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...WITH SOME TIMING
AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE REMAINS
EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THE NAM/CANADIAN/ECMWF MODELS KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST
AND SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE
HIGH. THE GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL TO PRODUCE ROUNDS OF QPF AT TIMES
DURING THIS PERIOD. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO BE OVERDONE
SOMEWHAT WITH DEW POINTS...WHICH MAY BE LEADING TO THE QPF
FORECASTS. THINK THE GFS IS OVERDONE...AS THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT
FEATURES TO PRODUCE THE QPF IT IS SHOWING.

THUS...LEANED TOWARDS THE NAM/CANADIAN/ECMWF AND LOWERED POPS
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS
PERIOD END UP DRY. WARM 925 MB TEMPERATURES AND SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD RESULT IN WARM AND HUMID DAYS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH
HIGHS INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S EACH DAY. THEY COULD INCH A
DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. ONSHORE WINDS WILL
KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS SOMEWHAT COOLER.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS LINGERING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AS WELL...WITH EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA. THUS...KEPT POPS GOING
FOR THE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY PERIOD...HIGHEST TUESDAY NIGHT. MAY
NEED HIGHER POPS TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY IF THEY REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING.

SOMEWHAT COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS THEN MOVE INTO THE
REGION FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOST OF THIS PERIOD
LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

EXCEPT FOR A FEW BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POPPING UP
ALONG THE COOL FRONT...MOST AREAS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WILL REMOVE VICINITY THUNDER AS ANY PCPN
THAT DOES REACH A TAF SITE WILL BE A LIGHT SHOWER AT MOST. FRONT
CLEARS THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER BETWEEN 15Z AND 16Z ENDING ANY
PCPN CHANCES.

MAINLY VFR CLOUDS WITH FRONT...BUT SOME SCT-BKN MVFR CLOUDS RIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT THAT COULD AFFECT TAF SITES FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL WATCH TRENDS UP TO ISSUANCE TO SEE IF
LOWER CLOUDS EXPAND IN COVERAGE.

VFR CONDITIONS FOR REMAINDER OF FORECAST WITH AN EASTERLY LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THAT SHOULD PUSH WEST TO
KUES BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION...REM
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WOOD


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