Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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320
FXUS63 KMKX 261551 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1051 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...

AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...BEFORE MIXING OUT BY LATER THIS EVENING OR SOON AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MODELS MAY BE SOMEWHAT SLOW WITH THE LOW CLOUDS MIXING
OUT...AS LEADING EDGE OF CLEARING IS ALREADY AT WISCONSIN/UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN BORDER AREA.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS GOING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SLOWLY VEERING TO
THE EAST LATER TONIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN.

THIS WILL MAKE FOR A RAW REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS
AND WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WELL INLAND. THESE
INLAND HIGHS MAY BE TOO WARM...AND MAY NEED FURTHER ADJUSTMENT
DOWNWARD WITH THE LOW CLOUDS LINGERING.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY HAVE INCREASING CEILINGS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...GOING FROM IFR TO MVFR CATEGORY. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW OR UP TO 2000 FEET ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL...THOUGH THEY MAY RISE HIGHER BY THIS EVENING.

THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT EITHER THIS EVENING OR SOON AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING HERE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ARE THEN EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE INCREASING
MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY.

GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE EASTERN SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...A BIT LOWER AT MADISON. GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE HERE. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER EASTWARD
TONIGHT AND WEAKEN A BIT...WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING
GUSTY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS INTO
THIS EVENING. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING BY LATER
THIS EVENING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS CAUSING THE GUSTY
WINDS. HIGH WAVES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...SLOWLY SUBSIDING THIS EVENING.

GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS AND INCREASING WAVES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA. GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...WITH
WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET. ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AHEAD OF THE EJECTING UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND GREAT PLAINS AREA.  WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE STRENGTHENS A
LITTLE LATE TONIGHT BUT THE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION REMAINS VERY WEAK.

THE 700 MB RH IS DRY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF
MADISON TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS THAT
SPREADS ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING.  THE
NAM AND GFS TRY TO DRY OUT THE LOW LEVELS FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
IF THIS OCCURS TEMPERATURES WOULD DROP INTO THE MID 30S. WINDS WOULD
NOT DECOUPLE COMPLETELY SO WILL NOT MENTION FROST.

OTHERWISE THE NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST
TONIGHT...CONTINUING THE COOL TEMPERATURES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A COOLER PATTERN FOR MID-WEEK WITH TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL. IT WILL BE PARTICULARLY COOL NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE BY TO THE SOUTH LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH RAINFALL LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS
FRONTOGENESIS SETS UP WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE RAIN WILL
STRUGGLE TO OVERCOME THE DRY LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW...BUT SHOULD
SEE DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH PRECIP WINDING DOWN
ON THURSDAY. BULK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...SO LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

TEMPS WILL RECOVER BACK TOWARD NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR COOLER TEMPS ONCE AGAIN NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
TEMPS WILL THEN COOL DOWN A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SIMILAR TO THE WED/THU SYSTEM...LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO PASS BY
TO THE SOUTH BY LATE WEEKEND. THE LOW LOOKS STRONGER AND IS A BIT
FARTHER NORTH THOUGH...SO COULD BE MORE RAINFALL WITH THIS ONE.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR IFR/LIFR CIGS IN STRATUS THIS MORNING...THEN MAINLY IFR.
AREAS OF FOG AND POSSIBLY PATCHY DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MAY ERODE THE STRATUS FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT.

MARINE...

A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND WILL RESULT IN WAVES REACHING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ645-646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643-644.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DDV



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