Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 151806
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1206 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY. LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TO PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY.
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT. IN MANY AREAS IT MAY
BE DENSE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUES MORNING WITH DENSE
FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
WHICH WILL HELP SCOUR OUT LOW CLOUDS SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION WILL END BY TUES EVENING. EXPECTING A LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW MIX CHANGING TO SNOW ON TUESDAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TIMING. THINGS HAVE SLOWED A BIT...SO PULLED BACK ON POPS AT LEAST
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH
AND FINALLY SATURATES TO 10KFT OR ABOVE BY AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOULD
SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWEST CWA BETWEEN 9AM AND NOON...THEN THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS DECENT FORCING ARRIVES
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN AROUND
SUNRISE ON TUESDAY.

THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT VERIFYING TOO WELL ACROSS A LARGE
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES ARE REMAINING
ELEVATED OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. AREAS WEST OF MADISON STILL HAVE VSBYS AROUND 1/4 MILE.
I/M RELUCTANT TO PULL THE ADVISORY AT THIS TIME OF DAY...AND MAY
JUST LET IT RIDE UNTIL WE GET PAST SUNRISE AND SEE WHERE
CONDITIONS ARE HEADED.

LAKE SHORE AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME DENSER FOG...ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT...AS HIGH DEW POINT AIR FLOWS OVER THE COOLER WATERS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL GET A LITTLE BAGGY AS
WELL TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES.

SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TAKING SURFACE LOW AND 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EAST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
CUTOFF 500 MB LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.
CONTINUED TO TAPER DOWN POPS ON TUESDAY FROM WEST TO EAST...AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS BRINGS COLDER AND DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS SUGGEST A MIX OF LIGHT
RAIN/LIGHT SLEET/LIGHT SNOW...OR ALL LIGHT SNOW...MAY OCCUR BEFORE
THE PRECIPITATION ENDS LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY DROP DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH 500 MB CUTOFF LOW SHIFTING SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOW
OPENING UP AND SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SLOWLY SHIFTS TOWARD THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE DRY DURING
THIS PERIOD...SO KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD. THEY KEEP HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IN THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

THESE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT ON THE GFS...WITH THE ECMWF FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
GFS BRUSHES LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...THOUGH THINK THAT GFS IS TOO FAR NORTH.

KEPT DRY FORECAST GOING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY...WITH MORE DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z TUESDAY AS A
VERY MILD AND MOIST AIRMASS FLOWS NORTH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN AROUND 12Z TUE WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
KICKING IN BEHIND THE LOW ON TUESDAY. THE COOLER DRIER AIR WILL
THEN BRING IMPROVING FLIGHT CONDITIONS.

VERY LOW VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING ARE MAINLY LIMITED TO AREAS
WEST OF MADISON. RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AFTER 9AM THIS MORNING. THE RAIN WILL
HELP TO LIFT VISIBILITIES FOR A TIME. VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY TO
DROP AGAIN TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT WITHIN A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW.

MARINE...

A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING.
A MILD AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS FLOWING OVER THE COOLER WATERS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD FOG.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WOOD



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