Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 200159
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
859 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.UPDATE...BKN HIGH CLOUDS CAUSED BY PASSING WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. HENCE BUMPED UP
CLOUD WORDING FOR THE OVERNIGHT. MAY BE SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE.
LOWERED TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES IN THOSE SUSCEPTIBLE ERN AREAS AS
WELL.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. MAY BE SOME
LIGHT FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KENW AND POSSIBLY KUES AFTER BKN HIGH
CLOUDS PUSH OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

.MARINE...REMOVED PATCHY FOG FOR TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE
MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE VICINITY OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.
MODIS IMAGERY FROM EARLIER TODAY HAD LAKE SURFACE TEMPS MOSTLY IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S SO CONDITIONS OVER THE WATER DO NOT
APPEAR CONDUCIVE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG THAT
MAY DEVELOP INLAND LATE TONIGHT MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE SHORE AREAS
BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE NICE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME...AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS WELL EAST OF THE REGION...WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIR
REMAINING OVER THE REGION.

MAY SEE AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...AS WEAK 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM PUSHES THROUGH. DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. SOME CLEARING IS
EXPECTED AT LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MORE DIURNAL CUMULUS IS
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST
AREAS PER 925 MB MODEL TEMPERATURE FIELDS. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD WARM
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND...UNDER WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME.
ONSHORE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN.

LONG TERM...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SOME MODELS SHOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MONDAY OVER NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF COUNTY WARNING AREA. LIKELY LEFT OVER SUNDAY NIGHT CONVECTION
OR MCS ROLLING EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF UPPER LEVER
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER TEXAS. SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FORECAST
THROUGH MID DAY MONDAY NORTHWEST PORTION OF CWA...THEN CLEARING
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO
MIDDLE 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY DURING MAX HEATING TIME OF DAY
AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY. BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO BE VERY EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS...SO MANY AREAS
COULD SEE 1 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS AREA WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP
WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS TAF SITES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME...WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR OVER THE REGION.

LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT MADISON AND WAUKESHA
UNTIL AROUND 02Z SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AT MILWAUKEE
AND KENOSHA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL LINGER
AT MADISON AND WAUKESHA AS WELL UNTIL AROUND 02Z SUNDAY.

SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY AFFECT TAF SITES THIS EVENING...BEFORE SOME
CLEARING MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE
LIGHT FOG AT KENOSHA BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z SUNDAY...POSSIBLY IFR
AT TIMES LIKE LAST NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE LOCALIZED.

MORE SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AT MADISON AND WAUKESHA...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK



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