Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 121955
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
255 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-The combination of low humidity and gusty southwest winds will
 lead to elevated fire weather conditions into early this
 evening, primarily north and west of Madison to Fond du Lac.

-Well above average temperatures are expected again Wednesday.

-Showers expected with thunderstorms possible Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 255 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Tonight through Wednesday night:

Areas of high clouds into this evening will give way to mostly
clear skies overnight as high pressure briefly builds in from
the north. Winds will also ease overnight, allowing temps to dip
into the 30s most places. Thinking it will stay a bit milder
towards the state line, as there will be a better chance of
lingering clouds there.

Clouds will gradually increase Wednesday into Wednesday night as
an area of warm air advection aloft moves in from the
south/southwest. Model soundings are showing a fair amount of
dry air at mid and low levels tomorrow, so it should take a
while for enough saturation for showers. Model soundings look
moist enough for a mention of showers (20-30%) by later
afternoon, with increasing chances overnight as forcing and
moisture increase. Should see a 50-70% chance for showers by
late Wed night, mainly southwest of Madison, with decreasing
chances towards the northeast.

Well above normal temps will prevail once again Wednesday,
especially away from Lake Michigan where 60s are likely. Highs
will be closer to 50-55 for lakeshore areas given onshore winds.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 255 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Thursday through Tuesday:

Low pressure is expected to pass by just to the south of
Wisconsin on Thursday. Plenty of moisture is anticipated, with
precipitable water values up to around an inch. Forcing will be
plentiful as well given the frontogenesis and warm air
advection aloft along/north of the low and associated warm
front. Thus went with a high chance (90-100%) of showers during
the day. Though it currently looks like the warm front will
remain south the the WI/IL border, there may be enough elevated
instability for some thunder, especially across the southern
forecast area. Could see a few storms produce some hail as well
given increasing mid-level lapse rates towards the state line
along with plenty of bulk shear in the lowest 6 km. Much cooler
temps are likely given the expected warm front position, with
northeast winds and clouds only allowing high temps into the
40s.

Dry weather and decreasing clouds are expected on Friday as high
pressure builds into the area. Cooler temps will continue,
though highs will likely be at least a couple degrees above
normal. Low pressure will then pass by just north of Lake
Superior on Saturday, dragging a cold front through the area by
evening. Breezy southwest winds ahead of the low/front will
result in milder temps, with highs back into the 50s likely.
Kept the forecast dry for now given the bulk of models showing a
dry frontal passage, but wouldn`t be surprised by a shower or
two.

Colder conditions will move in early next week behind the
departed low pressure system and cold front, with highs likely
only into the 30s most places Sun/Mon. A shortwave is expected
to move through later Sunday into early Monday, bringing a
chance for light snow back to southern Wisconsin. Some sunshine
and westerly winds should result in temps recovering back to
around normal on Tuesday.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 255 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Breezy southwest winds and BKN to OVC high clouds will continue
through late afternoon. Winds and clouds will decrease this
evening into tonight as high pressure briefly builds in from the
north. Expect easterly winds to develop Wednesday ahead of an
approaching low pressure system, with increasing VFR ceilings
also expected tomorrow. Isolated showers will be possible by the
afternoon as an area of warm air advection aloft moves into the
area.

DDV

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 255 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Breezy southwest winds will ease this evening into tonight,
becoming light and variable by early Wednesday as weak high
pressure moves into the area. A Small Craft Advisory remains in
effect until 7 pm CDT.

East to northeast winds will then pick up later Wednesday into
Thursday, as low pressure moves from the Central Plains into
northern Missouri. Breezy north to northeast winds are then
expected Thursday night into Friday as the low passes by just to
the south of Lake Michigan. Low pressure will then pass by just
to the north of Lake Michigan on Saturday, bringing a round of
breezy southwest winds to the area. Gusts to 30 knots will be
possible. Small Craft Advisory conditions will be possible
again at times Thursday through Saturday.

DDV

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 PM
     Tuesday.

&&

$$

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