Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 160931

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
431 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016


The convection with heavy rainfall will be coming to an end across
se WI by 10-1030z. The swly LLJ and vorticity maximum will move east
today with a weak ridge of high pressure to follow. Stratus clouds
and light fog will hang on through the morning but with some breaks
over south central WI for the afternoon. The front will move back
north as a warm front tonight as an upper wave moves from the nrn
Great Plains to the Lake Superior region. A strong LLJ will return
and focus mainly across nrn and central WI where tstorms are likely
with chances of pcpn over srn WI. More stratus and fog is expected
tonight with the return of the moist air.

.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Models are showing a weak surface low moving northeast into
southeast Minnesota or north central Iowa on Monday. There is a
good push of warm air advection into the area Monday on increasing
south winds. In addition, the low level jet nose focuses in
northern portions of the area and to the north of there.

The surface low then deepens as it continues to shift northeast
into the upper peninsula of Michigan and beyond Monday night. A
strong cold front shifts east through the region Monday night. The
east northeastward advancing 500 mb vorticity maximum, and
associated upward vertical motion, stays just north of the area
Monday night.

The main issue Monday into Monday night will be the strong cap
that develops over the area, in response to the strong push of
warm air advection into the area. NAM/GFS soundings both show this
on Monday, weakening somewhat Monday night but remains there. This
may limit or keep any showers and storms north of the forecast
area Monday into Monday night. For now, will leave in chance PoPs
in the northern portions of the area Monday afternoon and evening,
lower to the south.

Clouds trapped under cap may linger Monday, which may limit highs
somewhat. However, expected 925 mb temperatures suggest highs into
the mid to upper 70s across the area. If the sun can come out
Monday in the south, highs reaching 80 or a bit higher are
possible. Record highs Monday, and high minimums, may be reached
at Milwaukee and Madison, if the sun can come out. Despite cold
air advection Tuesday, highs should remain above normal. Quiet
weather is expected Tuesday into Tuesday night, with weak high

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

ECMWF and GFS differ with the placement of the system for
Wednesday into Thursday. The ECMWF is further to the northwest
with the surface low track, and has a more amplified 500 mb
shortwave trough, than the GFS. The ECMWF brings QPF into the
southeast half of the area during most of this period, being on
the backside of the system as it shifts northeast into Ohio.

The GFS keeps the area dry, with the low remaining well to the
south. Given the differences with the models, kept consensus blend
of PoPs and temperatures for Wednesday into Thursday.

ECMWF/GFS keep the region in northwest flow at 500 mb for Friday
into Saturday. There is 500 mb vorticity maxima that shift through
the area, with the ECMWF bringing some warm air advection for
Friday night and light QPF. The GFS is rather dry. Kept the
consensus PoPs and temperatures for this period for now.



Stratus will prevail much of today and tonight with perhaps a break
this afternoon over south central WI. Fog will also occur this
morning and again tonight via advection fog. The cigs will be below
1 kft at times especially tonight with vsbys ranging from 1/2 mile
to mvfr. Showers and tstorms will end early this morning but
scattered showers and tstorms will occur again tonight.



Breezy sly winds may reach SCA criteria on Mon and Mon evening
as developing low pressure tracks across the nrn Great Lakes.


.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...Wood is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.