Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 210850
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
350 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

The thunderstorm complex that is rolling across northern MN early
this morning is expected to track ESE and bring showers and
thunderstorms to portions of east central WI later this morning.
There is still a lot of uncertainty with its track.

This system is going to affect max temperatures and heat indices
today, so we made some changes to the headlines. The explanation will
be updated here soon.

FRIDAY... Forecast confidence is medium.

There is a good chance for quiet weather across southern WI on
Friday. Any convection today and/or tonight should push outflow
boundaries south of the WI border by Fri. If not, a surface trough
making its way through the region should be south of WI by midday.

The hot air will have a chance to build into central WI and expand
into south central WI during the day Fri, so as long as there are no
thunderstorms, we should be able to reach heat advisory criteria in
the southwest half of the MKX forecast area Friday.

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... Forecast confidence is medium.

Warm air advection (WAA), the nose of a low level jet and weak
shortwave activity will bring a decent chance for showers and
thunderstorms to WI Saturday. There is a better chance in the
afternoon than morning. Persistent WAA will keep the thunderstorm
chances going Sat night. Southern WI is in a marginal risk for
severe storms due to decent elevated CAPE.

A stronger shortwave trough tracking through the Northern Plains
will drag a surface trough/cold front through WI Sunday afternoon.
There should be thunderstorms with this front, with a chance for
severe due to strong cape but only marginal shear.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Forecast confidence is medium.

It looks like a cooler and quieter weather pattern is in store for
southern WI for the first half of next week with high pressure over
the Great Lakes.

Both the GFS and ECMWF are showing a potent shortwave tracking
through the Upper Great Lakes for the middle of the week which will
bring our next chance for storms.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...coming soon.


&&

.MARINE...coming soon.


&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from noon today to 7 PM CDT Friday for
     WIZ056-062>072.

LM...None.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Gehring
Friday THROUGH Wednesday...MRC


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