Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 211831
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
131 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...
Ceilings 2-4kft will continue through the early evening, with the
lower values in the west and higher values in the east. VFR
conditions are expected later this evening. Gusty southwest winds
are expected again on Monday. There is a small chance for showers
and thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 934 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017)

MARINE...

Dense fog is lingering near Sheboygan but satellite imagery shows
it moving north. Expect it to continue moving north and/or
dissipate this morning. West winds will gust to 25 knots today and
southwest winds will gust 20-25 knots Monday.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 730 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017)

UPDATE...

Visibility has improved across all of southern WI this morning in
the wake of an occluded front. Winds are increasing out of the
southwest and there is an area of clear skies working its way
across the region. This clearing is associated with the dry slot
of the low pressure system that is currently over the Twin Cities
area.

Look for low clouds to spread back into southern WI by early
afternoon as moisture wraps around the south side of the low. Gusty
southwesterly winds are expected this afternoon.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...

Fog has diminished in the wake of an occluded front this morning.
An area of mostly clear skies is working its way across southern
WI right now. Expect lower clouds with 2500 to 3500 ft ceilings to
spread back into southern WI by early afternoon. Cloud bases
should remain VFR over southeast WI closer to the lake. Look for
gusty southwesterly winds today. VFR conditions will return for
south central WI late in the evening as clouds scatter out.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 331 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017)

SHORT TERM...

Today and Tonight...Forecast Confidence is High...

Visibility will improve in the wake of an occluded front that is
tracking east through southeast WI early this morning. The front
should clear the lakeshore near Milwaukee around 6 am and near
Sheboygan around 8 am. It could take another couple of hours for
the fog to completely clear, but expect improvement with the drier
southwest winds.

Along the front, there is a chance of showers and a slight chance
of a thunderstorm. There have been a few rumbles of thunder along
the front overnight and also a little small hail in the stronger
cells.

Expect gusty westerly winds across southern WI this afternoon as
low pressure tracks through northern WI and into the U.P. of
Michigan. Skies may clear for a period of time this morning, but
expect clouds to fill in once again for the afternoon. Can`t rule
out a few sprinkles, but forecast soundings show too shallow of
moisture for showers today.

LONG TERM...

Monday through Wednesday...Forecast confidence is medium to high:

A push of milder temps back into the area will likely kick off a
round of showers and storms on Monday, beginning in the afternoon
hours. Low pressure passing through the region is then expected
to bring continued showers Monday night and Tuesday. Kept some low
pops on Wednesday, as low pressure will be slow to pull away from
the area.

After milder temps back near normal for Monday, cooler temps are
likely to return for Tue/Wed.

Thursday through Saturday....Forecast confidence is medium to
high:

High pressure is progged to persist into late week, which would
suggest mainly dry weather for Thursday and Friday. A shortwave
may bring some showers by later Friday into Friday night. A chance
for showers and storms is then expected Saturday as the first wave
departs and another approaches.

Temps are expected to rebound back to around normal to end the
work week and into the weekend.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...

Dense fog will persist until the passage of the occluded front
from west to east early this morning. The front is expected to
clear Lake Michigan near Milwaukee around 6 am, but fog could
linger up to two hours later before clearing. There could be some
small hail in any thunderstorms along the occluded front early
this morning.

There should be a period of VFR with possible clear skies later
this morning, but clouds will fill back in during the afternoon.
Plan on gusty westerly winds across southern WI this afternoon,
along with MVFR ceilings in the 2000 to 3000 ft range. Ceilings
near Lake Michigan could remain VFR this afternoon due to deeper
mixing.

MARINE...

A marine dense fog advisory is in effect for the overnight hours.
Expect fog to dissipate as winds turn southwest and drier air
moves in behind a front between 6 and 8 am this morning. There is
a slight chance of thunderstorms with small hail along this
front.

Gusty westerly winds are expected this afternoon. Wind gusts in
the 20 to 25 knot range warrant a Small Craft Advisory. Similar
conditions are anticipated for Monday as well.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

Update...Marquardt
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Cronce
Monday THROUGH Saturday...DDV


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