Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KMKX 030228
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
928 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ACROSS TAF SITES. SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER SOUTH AREAS TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...WITH PATCHY IFR FOG POSSIBLE IN LOW AREAS. FOR THE TAF
SITES MVFR CATEGORY FOG FROM 09Z TO 14Z IN MADISON. MAY SEE THIS
AT OTHER SITES BUT LEFT OUT DUE TO MORE UNCERTAINTY. SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EAST WITH A LAKE BREEZE. OTHERWISE
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE QUIET
WEATHER TO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY BRUSH THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES INTO THIS EVENING...THOUGH MOST SHOULD REMAIN TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SOME FOG IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER
VALLEY. SOME GROUND FOG MAY OCCUR AS WELL IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S IN MOST AREAS...A FEW
DEGREES BELOW SHORT TERM BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE. MILDER 925 MB
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD BRING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
INLAND. LAKE BREEZE WILL KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WEAK SFC TROUGHING ATTENDANT TO
A PASSING IMPULSE SHOULD BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO THE FAR
NORTH SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES ARE
SUFFICIENTLY DRY...AND FORCING APPEARS SUFFICIENTLY WEAK THAT
PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY FOR MOST AREAS. DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FAR NE CWA...FROM ROUGHLY FLD TO SBM...WHERE THE
GFS20...NAM12...AND NAM NEST WANT TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS
SATURDAY EVENING. 925 MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS RISING INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
COMPONENT KEEPING THINGS A BIT COOLER ALONG THE LAKESHORE. ALL IN
ALL...LOOKS LIKE A GOOD 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MID-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AS AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE ADVANCES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SFC TROUGHING
PASSES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA MAXIMIZED DURING THIS TIME. WARM CLOUD LAYER
DEPTH INCREASES TO AROUND 14 KFT MONDAY NIGHT AS PWATS CLIMB TO
AROUND 2 INCHES PER THE GFS. THIS POINTS TO AN ENVIRONMENT
POTENTIALLY SUPPORTIVE OF EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION. HOWEVER...
STEERING FLOW APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE THINGS
PROGRESSIVE...WITH RAIN MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THE GEM IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER...AND HOLDS ON TO PRECIP THROUGH
00Z WEDNESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED POPS LOOK GOOD HERE.
INCLUDED THUNDER AS MLCAPE AXIS CROSSES THE CWA MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES APPROACH 40
KT...BUT APPEAR OUT OF SYNC WITH THE BEST CAPE AT THIS TIME. NEAR
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH SOME COOLING
ON TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION AROUND.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

SURFACE RIDGING KEEPS THINGS DRY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TROUGHING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THURSDAY EVENING...WITH THE
ECMWF GENERATING PRECIP ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. ALL
DRY ON THE GFS...SO WILL DEFER TO BLENDED MODEL CONSENSUS POPS.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ACROSS TAF SITES. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY CLIP MADISON INTO THIS
EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LINGER AT THE EASTERN SITES UNTIL
SUNSET...WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AT MADISON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY...WITH LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE AT MADISON. WENT WITH MVFR
CATEGORY FOG FROM 09Z TO 14Z IN MADISON TAF. MAY SEE THIS AT OTHER
SITES BUT LEFT OUT DUE TO MORE UNCERTAINTY. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE EASTERN STIES FRIDAY WITH LAKE BREEZE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SPM


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.