Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 211639 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1139 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.UPDATE...

Temperatures are warming nicely across southern Wisconsin, with the
exception of the lakeshore where an easterly breeze off the lake is
keeping the temps cooler.  Highs are on track to reach the upper 70s
well inland from the lake.  Dry air over the region will limit
widespread cumulus clouds today so plan on plenty of sunshine.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds will
generally be at or below 10kts. Some scattered high-based diurnal
cumulus clouds are expected this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure will keep winds light and wave heights low through the
weekend, with southerly winds and waves increasing later Monday
and into Tuesday ahead of an approaching trough of low pressure.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 316 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast confidence is high.

High pressure will provide very pleasant conditions across the area
today.  Good mixing...steep lapse rates will help push temps into
the mid and upper 70s...but cooler 60s by the lake. That deep mixing
will also provide low dewpoints.  The cirrus shield clipping the
southeast at sunrise...associated with an upper wave pulling
away...will clear out this morning.   Quiet weather continues
through tonight.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...Forecast Confidence...High

High pressure will bring very pleasant weather to start the week.
Skies will be mostly sunny Sunday and Monday. High temperatures
will be above normal, in the upper 70s to low 80s away from Lake
Michigan. It will be cooler near the lake, but still a bit above
normal.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

High pressure will slide eastward Monday night into the week,
opening the door for precipitation chances. Multiple systems are
forecast to push through during the week, bringing rounds of
showers and thunderstorms. Precipitable water values per the GFS
are forecast to be around 1 to 1.5 inches through this period, so
there should be plenty of moisture to work with.

GFS/NAM dewpoints are likely overdone, but even the drier ECMWF
is showing a respectable amount of instability through much of
the week. It is not out of the question that a few storms could
be strong to severe at some point during the week given the setup.
It is hard to pin down a time period where severe weather chances
seem most likely given model timing/placement differences of the
multiple waves. Something to keep an eye on though as details
become more clear next week.

Temperatures will likely remain above normal through the week
given persistent 925 mb temps of around 25C. Temps near the lake
are a bit tricky, as there isn`t great confidence in the winds
near the lake each day. Depending on the direction and strength of
the low level winds, could have prevailing onshore winds or a lake
breeze develop. Also, convection can throw a wrench in wind
direction. Stuck close to the consensus of model blends for
now, resulting in temps a bit cooler than inland each day.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Some diurnal
cumulus is expected well inland this afternoon...based around 6kft.
Winds will generally be at or below 10kts.

MARINE...

High pressure will keep winds light and wave heights low through the
weekend, with southerly winds and waves increasing later Monday
and into Tuesday ahead of an approaching trough of low pressure.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Davis
Sunday THROUGH Friday...DDV



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