Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 141521 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
921 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

.UPDATE...

LATEST WEBCAMS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE IMPROVING VISIBILITIES
ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING...WITH MANY LOCATIONS GREATER THAN 1/4
MILE AT THIS TIME. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO LET THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY EXPIRE AT NOON...MAYBE EVEN CANCEL A BIT EARLY IF NEED
BE.

CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AGAIN...BUT STILL SHOULD BE
ABLE TO REACH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING...THOUGH LOW CIGS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MONDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT
SOME MORE FOG TONIGHT. THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY IN WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG THOUGH...AS MOST OF THE REMAINING SNOWPACK IS GONE AND THE
GROUND CONTINUES TO WARM. MAY SEE SOME DRIZZLE AT TIMES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE REGION WITH CONDITIONS
SATURATED...OR NEARLY SO...UP TO 5KFT TODAY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
IS IN PLACE...BUT IS STRUGGLING TO VERIFY IN SOME
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST...AND THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
RATHER STRONG WINDS OF 25KTS JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION. THE MIXING
IS HELPING KEEP THE VSBYS FROM DROPPING TO THE 1/4 MILE THRESHOLD.
WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE DECISION ON WHETHER TO KEEP IT IN EFFECT
THERE AT FCST ISSUANCE TIME.

THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION/LIFT
COULD BRING SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...SO WILL KEEP THAT MENTION
THROUGH TONIGHT. 925MB TEMPS ARE UP TO 9-10C TODAY. THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP US FROM REALIZING THE FULL POTENTIAL OF
THAT WARMTH. IF WE WERE DRY ADIABATIC...INSTEAD OF INVERTED IN THE
LOW LEVEL TEMP SOUNDING...WE COULD SEE SOME 60S OUT THERE.
INSTEAD WE/LL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRENDS DURING THIS PERIOD. THEY
BRING A SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SOUTHEAST
IOWA MONDAY...THEN ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS MONDAY NIGHT...THEN
INTO AND EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN TUESDAY.

ASSOCIATED 500 MB CLOSED LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST IN A SIMILAR FASHION
TO THE LOW PATH. LEAD VORTICITY MAXIMUM CROSSES NORTHEAST INTO THE
AREA MONDAY MORNING...AS AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS GET MOIST.
SOUNDINGS REMAIN SATURATED FOR THE MOST PART MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD.

WILL KEEP HIGHER END POPS GOING FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO CARRIED AREAS OF FOG WORDING INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MOIST AIR IN PLACE...UNTIL LOW PASSES BY TO THE EAST.

COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN ON TUESDAY...ON BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES INTO
THE AREA...ALONG WITH A DRIER AIR MASS. MAY SEE A MIX OR CHANGE TO
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THOUGH DRIER AIR WORKING IN
WILL HELP WIND DOWN ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION.

QUIET WEATHER WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT...DESPITE DEEP 500 MB LOW SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE TOO DRY FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF SHOWING DEEP 500 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN OPENING
UP AND SHIFTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DRY AIR MASS OVER THE REGION WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

GFS THEN DIVERGES FROM THE ECMWF WITH TRENDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. IT IS NOW KEEPING THE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FURTHER SOUTH...AND JUST CLIPS SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER
SOUTH...AND KEEPS THE AREA DRY. FOR NOW...USED CONSENSUS POPS AND
KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW GOING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY AS A
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AHEAD OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. A
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
FROM MIXING OUT AND IMPROVING APPRECIABLY. CIGS AND VSBYS COULD
LIFT TO MVFR LEVELS FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY HEADING
BACK DOWN TO IFR LEVELS AGAIN TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.

MARINE...

A VERY MOIST AIRMASS PUSHING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF WISCONSIN WILL RESULT IN
AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK OVER OR NEAR
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE MONDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN
THE WAKE OF THE LOW MAY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ046-047-051-
     056>059-062>065-067>069.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WOOD


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