Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 142033
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
333 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL IL. THIS SYSTEM IS
CAUSING SEVERAL COMPLEX WEATHER FEATURES OVER SOUTHERN WI WHERE THE
SURFACE/925MB FRONT EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE LOW. ALL BUT FAR
SOUTHEAST WI NEAR KENOSHA HAVE SWITCHED OVER TO NORTHERLY WINDS WITH
THIS FRONT. THE WINDS ARE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE ACCELERATING DOWN THE
LAKESHORE FASTER THAN JUST INLAND.

ANOTHER THING THAT HAPPENED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WAS STRONG WINDS
DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF PRECIP ENDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WINDS
GUST TO 50 MPH IN SHEBOYGAN AROUND 1 PM WITH THIS FEATURE. THE WIND
GUSTS HAVE COME DOWN TO 35-40 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON... AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.

12Z MODELS CAME IN WITH SLIGHTLY LESS PRECIP THAN PREVIOUS RUNS FOR
TONIGHT. THE MESOSCALE MODELS SUPPORT THE LIGHTER SOLUTION FOR
TONIGHT. THE HRRR HAS HAD A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIP COVERAGE
ALL DAY. THE NEXT BETTER-DEFINED ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH A
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW THAT IS PROGGED TO SWING
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MKX AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH 4 AM. THE
EAST HALF OF THE MKX AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS.

.WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW DRIFT THRUOGH INDIANA AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THEM THROUGH SOUTHEAST WI. EXPECTING
COOLER TEMPS WEDNESDAY THAN WHAT THEY WERE TODAY... WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S. EXPECT BRISK NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-23 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BROAD AND DOMINATING UPPER LOW CIRCULATION SLOWLY SHIFTS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD. SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO HOW
QUICK SE WI EXITS THE INFLUENCE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE
NORTHWEST WIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION...BUT FOR THE MOST PART LOOK
LIKE MIDDAY THURSDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE MID LEVEL
RIDGING TAKES HOLD. WILL LINGER SHRA CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BUT EVEN WITH THE NEW TAM COMING AROUND TO A DRIER SCENARIO
THURSDAY...WILL GO THE DRY ROUTE. THE TAM HANGS ONTO MORE LVL RH
INTO THURSDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MORE AGGRESSIVE ON CLEARING
THINGS OUT. 925 TEMPS AVERAGE 9-12C SO ANY SUN WOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO NUDGE INTO THE LOW 60S.

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHORTWAVE TREKS TO OUR NORTH WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
POSITIONED INTO SE WI EARLY IN THE DAY. LOW LEVEL COLD AVECTION
RAMPS UP A BIT ON INCREASING NW WINDS. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS TO
KEEP ANY PRECIP TO OUR NORTH. 12Z ECMWF HAS SAGGED SOME QPF
FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT BUT FOR THE MOST PART THIS IS AN OUTLIER.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY QUIET NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH MOVING
A BITY CLOSER FROM THE PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH
THE ECMWF SHOWING A WETTER LOOK BUT GFS/GEM BOTH DERY. INFLUENCE
OF THE LOW LEVEL COOL POOL IN PLACE WITH 925 TEMPS DOWN TO 3-5C.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING INFLUENCE OF
SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE PLAINS. SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW
AMPLIFIED THIS FEATURE WILL BE THOUGH ECMWF AND GEM SHOW A FAIRLY
DECENT PORT WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER. 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF A
BIT ON BRINGING PRECIS INTO WESTERN CWA BEFORE THE DAY IS OUT.
FOR NOW WENT WITH THE  POPS WHICH HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THE
WEST. MUCH OF THE AREA LOOKS DRY WITH POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND WITH WAN KICKING IN. LATER SHIFTS
MAY BE ABLE TO ELIMINATE THIS POP IF THE DRY TREND BECOMES
CONSISTENT.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
LOTS OF MODEL VARIABILITY THIS PERIOD WITH BOTH THE GFS AND GEM
SHOWING A STRONGER WAVE WITH BIG TIMING DIFFERENCES...WHILE THE
ECMWF SHOWING A WEAKER POSITIVE TILT WAVE WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIS. HAVE KEPT  POPS IN PLACE FOR NOW BUT IF WEAKER SOLUTION
OF THE ECMWF BECOMES THE PREVAILING IDEA THEN POP REDUCTION OR
REMOVAL WOULD BECOME NECESSARY.

.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF NORTHWEST ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH THE PLAINS. LARGE
SURFACE HIGH LOOKS TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...COMING SOON.

&&

.MARINE...COMING SOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR


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