Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 140343
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
943 PM CST THU NOV 13 2014

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...AN AREA OF MO CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
HAS EMERGED OVER EAST CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SE WI THIS EVENING.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED INTO MI AND IL WITH BROAD SCALE
SUBSIDENCE. BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS HOWEVER CONTINUE OVER WESTERN
AND NORTHERN WI AND BELIEVE MORE BROKEN CLOUD COVER FROM 3.5-4.5
KFT IS POSSIBLE FOR EARLY FRI AM. OTHERWISE SCT-BKN035-045 IS
FORECAST FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRI...ALTHOUGH MORE SCT CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED VERSUS BROKEN. MO CLEAR SKIES FOR FRI NT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CST THU NOV 13 2014/

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A DEEP AND COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY SWINGING THROUGH THE
REGION IS CAUSING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI TODAY.
THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS AND THE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY GOES AWAY. THERE WILL PROBABLY STILL BE FLURRIES AROUND
THROUGH MIDNIGHT UNTIL ONE LAST SURFACE TROUGH/UPPER SHORTWAVE GETS
INTO SOUTHERN WI.

THIS NEXT SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR
INTO SOUTHERN WI. BUFKIT SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW DRIER LOW LEVELS
WHICH WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO DECREASE A LITTLE OVERNIGHT. THERE SHOULD
BE AT LEAST SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID
TO UPPER TEENS /21 NEAR THE LAKESHORE/ IF THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT
ENOUGH. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING AS WELL. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THOSE TODAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE UPPER
LEVELS NOT SHOWING ANYTHING REMARKABLE. SO QUIET AND STILL COLD.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A DECENT SHORT WAVE PIVOTS ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE U.S. AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MOISTURE IS SURPRISINGLY
DEEP...COUPLED WITH A VERY DEEP DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE OF NEARLY
10KFT. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PRODUCING AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID...GIVE OR TAKE...WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE
TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH RATIOS IN THE 15-18 TO 1. THINGS
DRY OUT PRETTY QUICK ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE PUSHES EAST AND
WE GET INTO SOME BRIEF SUBSIDENCE/DRYING.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

YET ANOTHER POTENT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DROP SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES FOR MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT. THE
MODELS ARE GENERALLY DRY...BUT GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AND
INSTABILITY... BELIEVE IT/S WORTH A SMALL POP FOR SHOWERS. IT/S
APPARENT FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS THAT IT DOESN/T TAKE MUCH TO
PRODUCE THESE SHOWERS. IT WILL BE A DRY AND FLUFFY SNOW WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL
REINFORCE THE COLD AIR...BRINGING SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR WE/VE
SEEN THUS FAR FOR A GOOD PART OF NEXT WEEK.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE AND A FAIRLY DRY COLUMN SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK DRY...BUT STILL VERY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

WEAK LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DUE TO PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCES IS
LEADING TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE WILL DIMINISH TO FLURRIES AS THE SUN SETS. FLURRIES
WILL PROBABLY PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT UNTIL ONE LAST WEAK FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. THEN DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN AND HELP TO DECREASE
THE SKY COVER LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED VFR DIURNAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS FRIDAY.

VFR CIGS COULD DROP TO MVFR FOR A TIME EARLY THIS EVENING AND ONCE
AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING.

MARINE...

WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...DAVIS



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