Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 240207
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
907 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

.UPDATE...


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 FEET WILL
CREATE MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN WI SUNDAY
ALONG A WARM FRONT. THERE ARE SMALL CHANCES IN SOUTHERN WI SUNDAY
EVENING. THEY WILL BECOME LIKELY HERE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG A
COLD FRONT.

&&

MARINE...

RELATIVELY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVE HEIGHTS FOR
SUNDAY...BUT WINDS AND WAVES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST JUST BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016/

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

MID CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES DOWN THE
STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL WI. TOO DRY IN THE LOW
LEVELS FOR PRECIP SO REMOVED POPS.

THE MAIN FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH ON SUNDAY ALONG THE 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE... NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET... UPPER DIVERGENCE... 500MB VORTICITY ADVECTION... AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THE HI-RES WRF MODELS ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF
REFLECTIVITY OR AT LEAST LOWER CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
WI MID SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THEY ARE PICKING UP ON AN AREA OF THETA-E
ADVECTION. LEFT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF MADISON
AND MILWAUKEE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE THETA-E ADVECTION CATCHES
UP WITH THE BETTER SURFACE CONVERGENCE.

SUNDAY IS GOING TO BE A WARM DAY WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE. 925MB TEMPS
RISE TO AROUND 19C YIELDING INLAND MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S. WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SSW.

THE MORNING WIND DIRECTION WILL BE SOUTHEAST NEAR THE LAKESHORE.
MODELS ARE KEEPING THE DIRECTION SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE... BUT
WITH BREEZY SW WINDS JUST ABOVE THE GROUND... THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WINDS TO TURN SOUTHWEST NEAR THE LAKESHORE. THIS WILL IMPACT THE
FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN A BIG WAY. TOOK A COMPROMISE WITH HIGHS
AROUND 69 IN MILWAUKEE FOR NOW... BUT IT COULD BE HIGHER OR LOWER BY
5 TO 10 DEGREES DEPENDING ON THE WIND DIRECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

THE BIG CHALLENGE WILL BE THE BEHAVIOR OF THE WARM FRONT AS ITS
SUPPRESSED SOUTH WITH TIME...EVENTUALLY REACHING OUR NRN FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THE SOUTH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A PIECE OF
MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL RIDE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD
HELP TO BRING THE AREA A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAYBE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE WEST OF MADISON...AND MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPS SOUTH OF THE FRONT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO WARM BACK INTO THE
MID 70S ON MONDAY...BUT JUST WHERE THAT FRONT WILL BE IS CRUCIAL.
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY ACCELERATE DOWN THE LAKE...SO MILWAUKEE
LIKELY TO STAY IN THE 60S. HIGHS WILL BE REACHED AROUND MID-
DAY...THEN THE WARM FRONT...LIKELY MORE OF A COLD FRONT...DROPS
SOUTH AND COOLS THINGS OFF QUICKLY. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
NOTICEABLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE COLD LAKE WATERS WILL
HAVE A GREAT INFLUENCE. IN ADDITION...MONDAY SHOULD FEATURE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH SOME SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. THE NAM IS RATHER
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE CAPE...PUSHING AROUND 2000J/KG...WHILE THE GFS
IS CLOSER TO 1000J/KG OR LOWER. WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND...SO SEVERE POTENTIAL IS MINIMAL. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS A
RESPECTABLE 35-40KTS.

AS THE LOW SCOOTS BY MONDAY NIGHT...LOOK FOR THE RAIN TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST.

TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

BRIEF RIDGING WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS...BUT AN EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP IT COOL...IN THE 40S AND 50S...WITH THE
COOLEST READINGS CLOSE TO LAKE MICHIGAN.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT THEN HEAD EAST...BUT WEAKEN WITH TIME AS IT
REMAINS SOUTH OF WISCONSIN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THIS PUTS US ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE LOW. WE SHOULD STILL SEE A DECENT BAND OF
SHOWERS SWING NORTH OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. SOME OF THE
LARGER UNCERTAINTY MAY BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA WHERE A DRY
EASTERLY FLOW COULD EAT UP THE ADVANCING RAIN...KEEPING THAT AREA
DRIER.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DRY US OUT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
PUSHING BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S IN SOME AREAS.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 FEET WILL CREATE MARGINAL
CONDITIONS FOR WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT. MENTIONED LLWS AT MSN AND KEPT
IT OUT OF THE LAKESHORE TAF SITES DUE TO SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS
ALOFT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN WI SUNDAY
ALONG A WARM FRONT. THERE ARE SMALL CHANCES IN SOUTHERN WI SUNDAY
EVENING. THEY WILL BECOME LIKELY HERE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG A
COLD FRONT.

MARINE...

RELATIVELY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVE HEIGHTS FOR
SUNDAY...BUT WINDS AND WAVES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST JUST BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DAVIS



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