National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KMKX 111604
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1104 AM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...SURFACE FRONT EXITING FAR SE WI AND TAKING
BAND OF SHRA WITH IT. WINDS SHIFT ABRUPTLY TO THE NW WITH BRIEF
GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. BACK EDGE OF THICKER MVFR CLOUD DECK SHIFTING
THROUGH SRN WI. UPPER FLOW STRONGLY CYCLONIC WITH 500 MILLIBAR
TEMPS -20 TO -23C. VFR CU WILL FILL IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. NW
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY 20-30 KNOTS. LIGHTER WIND REGIME SUNDAY
AS GRADIENT RELAXES THOUGH LINGERING CLOD AIR ALOFT IN UPPER
CYCLONIC FLOW SO POTENTIAL FOR MORE CU.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013/

TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH

SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG SURFACE FRONT ALIGNED WELL WITH NARROW BUT
POTENT LOW TO MID LAYER FRONTOGENESIS THAT ACTUALLY STRENGTHENS JUST
TO OUR EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS PV ANOMALY DIGS/DEEPENS TO THE
SOUTHEAST. CURRENT TIMING TAKES SHOWERS OUT OF THE FAR EAST BETWEEN
17Z AND 18Z. GUSTY BEHIND FRONT WITH 3-HOURLY SURFACE PRESSURE
RISE/FALL COUPLET ON THE ORDER OF 3-4 MB...AND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH DEEP MIXING UP TO 30 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 800 MB. CLOUDS BREAK BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A TIME...BUT LOW
LEVEL RH FIELDS AND SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD
DECK THIS AFTERNOON WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. 925 MB TEMPERATURES
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

BACKED OFF ON EXTENT/AMOUNT OF FROST FOR TONIGHT. WINDS HOLD UP WITH
SUBSEQUENT MIXING HOLDING TEMPERATURES ABOVE 32F. COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FROST IN LOW-LYING AREAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE
SURFACE TEMPS COULD BE LOWER...BUT WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
KEEPING MAXIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NO GREATER THAT 72 PCT
WILL BE HARD TO GET MUCH FROST.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY QUIET WEATHER TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS IN THE
EAST SUNDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROLLS THROUGH. WARM AIR ADVECTION
MONDAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GET NEAR THE FREEZING MARK.
KEPT FROST MENTION IN THE FORECAST AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONSIDER
A FROST ADVISORY DOWN THE ROAD THROUGH. CONSIDERED A FREEZE
WATCH...BUT WITH EXPECTED LOWS IN THE 31-35 RANGE AND VERY LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS...A FREEZE DOES NOT SEEM TOO LIKELY. THE PERIOD OF
COLDEST TEMPS WILL NOT BE TOO LONG LIVED EITHER...AS THE SUN RISING
AROUND 530 AM WILL GET TEMPS WARMING QUICKLY IN THE MORNING UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY...LIKELY
STRUGGLING INTO THE LOW 50S. THOUGH WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER THAN
SATURDAY...THEY WILL STILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...PUTTING
A BIT OF A CHILL IN THE AIR FOR MOTHERS DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES ON TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER NEARLY 10 DEGREES FROM
SUNDAY...FALLING JUST A COUPLE DEGREES SHY OF NORMAL VALUES MOST
PLACES. IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN THOUGH AS ONSHORE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON.

THE WARM ADVECTION MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN OVERNIGHT. LEFT CHANCE POPS GENERALLY AS IS FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
WEDNESDAY MAY BE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE 80S MOST PLACES...AS IT
SEEMS THAT WINDS MAY REMAIN ONSHORE IN THE EAST TUESDAY. THE NEW
ECMWF CAME IN A BIT QUICKER WITH THE COLD FRONT THOUGH...SIMILAR NOW
TO THE GFS. THIS PUTS A LITTLE LESS CERTAINTY IN EXACT TEMPS...BUT
EITHER WAY IT STILL LOOKS WARM.

LOOKS MAINLY DRY THEN TUESDAY AS THE WARM AND CAPPED AIRMASS MOVES
INTO PLACE. HAVE POPS WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THAT WILL DEPEND ON THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT.

POPS AND TEMPERATURES ARE LESS CERTAIN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY NOW THAT THE ECMWF IS QUICKER WITH THE FRONT AND
STALLS IT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THERE...AS IT
DOES NOT SEEM MODELS HAVE SETTLED ON A SOLUTION QUITE YET. LOOKS
LIKE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

PATCHY IFR FOG/CIGS WILL LIFT WITH APPROACHING TROUGH/FRONT. VFR
CIGS AND VSBYS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG FRONT AND WILL WATCH
TRENDS TO SEE IF ANY TAF SITE NEEDS TO HAVE PCPN INCREASE FROM THE
VICINITY SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN FORECAST. NW WIND GUSTS TO INCREASE
BEHIND FRONT AND LAST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WILL LOSE THE
GUSTS WITH NOCTURNAL INVERSION BUT GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO PREVENT WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT.

MARINE...

EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 18Z SUNDAY AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK WILL KEEP NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING AT OR ABOVE CRITERIA INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY
DIMINISH FOR A TIME TONIGHT BELOW CRITERIA...BUT TIME PERIOD TOO
SHORT TO SEPARATE OUT INTO TWO DIFFERENT ADVISORIES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV