Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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000
FXUS63 KMKX 262127
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
327 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A
500MB SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND ALONG AN 850MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE DIRECTLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WI AT 12Z/6 AM SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE NOON HOUR. PLAN ON GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF IN SOUTHERN WI UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND EVEN AFTER THAT IT SHOULD BE SPOTTY. THIS WILL BE A
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN/LOW CLOUD/FOG EVENT FOR SOUTHERN WI TONIGHT. THE
BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WITH THE
SURFACE LOW SATURDAY MORNING... WHICH WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST.
THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT... MAINLY RAIN THAT
COULD CHANGE OVER TO A WET... SLUSHY SNOW NORTHWEST OF MADISON
BEFORE TAPERING OFF MIDDAY SATURDAY. LESS THAN AN INCH ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED TOWARD CENTRAL WI.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
TO HIGH.

WNWLY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WILL DECREASE SAT NT AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEARING SKIES SETTLES OVER SRN WI. THE HIGH
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SUN WITH SUNSHINE AND TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS TO THEN INCREASE LATE SUN
NT AND MON AS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES ARE WITHIN
THE CONFLUENT ZONE OF THE NRN AN SRN JET STREAMS ALONG WITH AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THE AIRMASS REMAINS
FAIRLY DRY WITH PWS AROUND 0.25 INCHES SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST FOR MON AND MON NT. AT THE SFC...A COLD FROPA IS
EXPECTED MON AM WITH NLY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING INTO
MON NT. TEMPS WILL COOL TO NORMAL FOR MON WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE CWA BY EARLY TUE AM.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT COLD TEMPS FOR TUE
AND WED WHILE A 1050 MB ARCTIC HIGH MOVES FROM THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS. AS THE LARGE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ACROSS THE SRN USA AND TO THE EAST COAST...A SWLY SFC FLOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THUS
TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THU-FRI. NO SNOW
EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

SOUTHWEST FLOW IS BRINGING ADDED MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN WI TODAY.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD IN BY EVENING...WHICH WILL LOWER TO IFR
BY MIDNIGHT AND LIFR LATE TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
OVERHEAD. VSBY WILL BE DOWN TO A MILE OR TWO IN FOG WITH THE LOW
CEILINGS.

EXPECT SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN WI
AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT WILL POSSIBLY MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW
NORTHWEST OF MADISON SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY MIDDAY.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTS WILL LIKELY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS IN
THE AFTERNOON FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AS SOON AS THE LIGHT RAIN
ENDS. THUS... ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 10 PM CST SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GEHRING


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