Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 170523
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1123 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

.UPDATE...

Temperatures have fallen into the low teens or single digits at
this hour, and will continue to fall into the low to mid single
digits overnight.

&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions should generally prevail for the next 24 hours. The
main concern for aviation will be increasing southwest winds
Wednesday morning and afternoon, with gusts between 25 and 30 kts
at times during the afternoon hours. This wind will likely result
in areas of blowing snow, and while widespread visibility
restrictions aren`t especially likely, airport surfaces may need
to be cleared of snow once again. LLWS is expected across the area
Wednesday night into early Thursday.

&&

MARINE...

Winds will increase from the southwest tomorrow morning, with
frequent gusts around 30 KT through the day. A few gale force
gusts are also possible. A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect
from mid morning Wednesday through Thursday afternoon.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 217 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018)

DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Thursday...Forecast confidence is high.

Generally quiet weather is expected. The one problem for Wednesday
into Thursday will be the increasing west to southwest winds. Low
pressure to our north and high pressure to the south, puts us
squarely in a tight pressure gradient. We should see sustained
winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 and possibly 35 mph up
toward Sheboygan for Wed afternoon into Thursday. This should
result in considerable drifting snow, causing difficult travel,
especially in the more north/south oriented roads.

Temperatures will be in the 20s on Wednesday, warming into the
lower and mid 30s on Thursday with the milder southwest flow.

Friday and Saturday...Forecast confidence is high.

Our quiet and progressively milder trend will continue as the flow
turns more zonal then southwest with time. We could have highs in
the lower 40s by Saturday.

Sunday and Monday...Forecast confidence is medium.

The long range guidance has a storm system rolling through the
Upper Midwest later in the weekend into early next week. Both the
GFS and the ECMWF have the track pretty far to the west and north,
thus we get into the warm sector of this storm. Timing is off a
bit from each model, but not bad for this far out. High temps in
the 40s through the weekend would result in a wintry mix early,
transitioning to rain, then back to snow. It`s a very long way off
in the meteorology world and this track will continue to
fluctuate with time. But, right now, this is not a big snow
producer for southern Wisconsin. Stay tuned.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 3 PM CST Thursday
     for LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

Update...Boxell
Tonight/Wednesday and Aviation/Marine...Boxell
Wednesday Night through Tuesday...99


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