Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
FXUS63 KMKX 290831
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
331 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...Coming Soon...
.MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is
Models show weak high pressure over the region on Memorial Day.
Area forecast soundings are fairly dry across the area, so kept
the dry forecast going.
There is some focused 850 mb warm air advection in northeast
Iowa on Memorial Day, which tries to help kick off some showers
and storms in that area. However, think that this activity should
remain southwest of the area until Monday night. Another warm day
is expected, with highs in the lower 80s inland and 70s near the
lake as winds turn onshore.
GFS/ECMWF/Canadian models show gradual warm air advection
developing, bringing more moisture and humidity back into the
region by Tuesday night. Surface warm front shifts northeast into
the area Tuesday, then to the northeast Tuesday night as the cold
front approaches the region from the west. 500 mb vorticity
maximum slides northeast into the region Tuesday night as well.
Thus, continued to ramp up pops gradually Monday night into
Tuesday night across the area.
Area forecast soundings show a gradual buildup of mean layer CAPE
with the moisture pushing into the region. Deep layer shear gets
better by Tuesday night as well, though it remains modest at best
at this point. Another warm day in the lower 80s is forecast for
Tuesday inland, with onshore winds keeping lakeshore areas in the
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.
ECMWF/GFS bring cold front eastward through the region Wednesday,
exiting Wednesday night. This is accompanied by a 500 mb shortwave
trough passage. The ECMWF is a bit quicker with the progression of
these features. Still, feel comfortable with the likely pops for
Wednesday. Would like to see better deep layer shear and mean
layer CAPE for more organized severe convection than what the GFS
forecast soundings are showing. Still several days away and
things may get more favorable as we get closer. Warm temperatures
should continue Wednesday.
Kept lower end pops for Wednesday night into Thursday, as 500 mb
vorticity maximum moves through and another approaches the area
from the northwest. Cooler and drier air moves into the region
behind the cold front for later in the week, perhaps bringing an
extended period of dry conditions.
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...Coming Soon...
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Gehring
Monday THROUGH Saturday...Wood