Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 111104
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
504 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast confidence medium to high.

A shortwave trough currently over the central Great Plains will move
across srn WI this evening while the wave of low pressure tracks
across ne IL. As the wave of low pressure passes to the south and
east, the stationary front over central WI will move south as a cold
front. Cold surface air will undercut warm advection aloft making
for mixed precipitation for much of srn WI. The mixed precipitation
will begin by early afternoon nw of Madison and develop to the east
and south through the afternoon as 850 mb frontogenesis is enhanced
and the shortwave approaches. Issued a Winter Weather Advisory with
the exception of Marquette and Green Lake counties where only snow
and possibly sleet is expected. Farther to the south and east, many
areas will experience all precipitation types including freezing
rain. Ice accumulations will range from a glaze to one tenth of an
inch. Another shortwave trough will then approach early Thu AM with
chances of light snow at that time. High temps today will range from
the middle to upper 20s toward central WI to the middle to upper 30s
far se WI. Lows tonight will range from near 10 above toward central
WI and lower 20s far se WI.


.THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium to High

The shortwave will move through Thursday morning, with the snow
winding down by late morning. Looks like around a trace to half an
inch of additional snowfall in the morning...the highest amounts
in the east.

Strong high pressure will move in Thursday night, moving overhead
on Friday. Another wave will be headed this way on Friday though,
with light snow expected to arrive Friday evening per the GFS and
ECMWF. Less confidence in this snowfall, as the NAM and Canadian
hardly have a wave and do not produce precip over southern
Wisconsin.

Should be dry then Saturday behind the wave.

Below normal temps Thursday and Friday will warm back to around
normal by Saturday.

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

Models are in good agreement that low pressure will move through
the region early next week. Models do ok with the general track of
the low as well, showing a warm layer aloft could bring a mix with
freezing rain and sleet for a time before precip transitions to
all rain.

The main issue with early next week is model timing. The ECMWF and
GFS are in decent agreement bringing the bulk of the precip Monday
afternoon into Tuesday. The Canadian is much quicker though,
bringing the system through roughly 18 hours earlier. Trended
temps and pops toward ECMWF and GFS for now.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS...Mixed precipitation will develop north and west
of the Milwaukee area during the early to middle afternoon. All rain
is expected in far se WI and near the IL border until sunset when
freezing rain will occur. The mixed precipitation and freezing rain
will occur into the evening hours. Cigs will fall this afternoon to
600 to 1500 feet with vsbys ranging from 1-2 miles toward central WI
where mostly snow is expected while vsbys will range from 2-5 miles
where mixed precipitation is occurring. As this precipitation ends
late tonight another chances of light snow is forecast during Thu
morning for much of srn WI. The cigs will remain low.


&&

.MARINE...Modest wly winds early this morning will back sly 10-20
kts into the early afternoon. A cold front will slowly from nw to se
across srn WI and Lake MI. The winds will veer nly 10-20 kts from
late afternoon into the early evening. Waves of 2-4 feet are
expected. No Small Craft Advisory is planned at this time. Winds
will gust into the 20 knot range at times.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to
     midnight CST tonight for WIZ066-069>072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CST
     this evening for WIZ056-057-062-063-067-068.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to
     midnight CST tonight for WIZ051-052-058>060-064-065.

LM...None.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Gehring
Thursday THROUGH Tuesday...DDV



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