Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 250405
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1105 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.UPDATE...

STARTING TO SEE SPOTTY CONVECTION FILL IN FROM NEAR MSP SWWD TO
NW OF DSM IN REGION OF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH/COOL FRONT AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH/VORT LOBE BEGINS TO SWING
NE FROM ERN NEBRASKA TO NR MSP BY 12Z MONDAY. LATEST RAP...HRRR
KEEP THIS CONVECTION WEST OF CWA UNTIL 09Z-10Z...AND FROM MSN AND
WEST THROUGH 12Z...WITH 00Z NAM HOLDING IT WEST OF MSN THROUGH
12Z. EXPECTING A RELATIVELY NARROW LINE OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN
SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG BOUNDARY...BUT THERE REMAINS TIMING/AREAL
COVERAGE DIFFERENCES TO FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT HAS NEED FOR CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS IN LINE WITH TRENDS OF CURRENT FORECAST
AND WILL BE KEPT.

WILL ALSO KEEP PATCHY FOG WORDING GOING. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE
LOW FOR VSBYS LESS THAN 3 MILES...WITH THE LATEST NAM MET GUIDANCE
HOLDING VSBYS NO LOWER THAN 2 MILES FOR A BRIEF TIME AROUND
12Z...OTHERWISE NO LOWER THAN 3 MILES. COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY
DENSE PATCHES...BUT WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS PROVIDING A BIT OF
MIXING...EXPECT MORE STRATUS THAN WIDESPREAD FOG WITH STRATUS
ALREADY FORMING OVER EASTERN COUNTIES AND SRN SOUTH CENTRAL WI.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

SPOTTY CONVECTION STARTING TO FILL IN ALONG SURFACE TROUGH/COOL
FRONT FROM SE MN TO NW OF DSM. EXPECT CONVECTION TO REMAIN WEST OF
MSN THROUGH 12Z. WILL KEEP VSBYS AT TAF SITES NO LOWER THAN 3SM IN
FOG AS SEEING MVFR STRATUS EXPAND OVER EASTERN COUNTIES...AS WELL
AS SRN SOUTH CENTRAL WI.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014/

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SCATTER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE SOME
MORE STRATUS FORM TONIGHT OR MAYBE SOME PATCHY FOG. MODELS VARY ON
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THOUGH...SO NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS.

KEPT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS GOING FOR TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...AS A PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTERACT
WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONT.

POTENTIAL IS THERE YET AGAIN FOR A HOT AND HUMID DAY MONDAY. AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE...MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE EXTENT OF CLOUDS VS SUN.
THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STORMS...SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUN POSSIBLE. MODEL 925 MB TEMPS ARE QUITE WARM FOR
TOMORROW...GENERALLY 25-28C. FORECAST HIGHS MIGHT BE A COUPLE
DEGREES TOO COOL IF THESE TEMPS ALOFT ARE REALIZED. CURRENT FORECAST
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS RESULT IN MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 95-100
RANGE. WITH CONDITIONS BORDERLINE AND THE UNCERTAINTY IN
CLOUDS/PRECIP...OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

APPEARS CRISTOBAL TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
SPRAWLING BLOCKING RIDGE AXIS OVER MOST OF ERN CONUS TO REMAIN
FARTHER TO THE EAST.  THIS WILL ALLOW STRONGER STEERING WINDS TO
AFFECT GTLAKES REGION IN RESPONSE TO SLOWLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
CROSSING HUDSON BAY AREA.  AS A RESULT...WEAK COOL FRONT APPROACHING
NORTHWEST WI TONIGHT WILL GET A REINFORCING PUSH OF COOLER AIR ON
MONDAY AND THEN IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS SRN WI MON NGT AND EARLY
TUE.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN IL
THEN THRU WED AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FUNNEL INTO
SRN WI.  HOWEVER COLUMN PWAT TO REMAIN 1-1.5 INCHES ACROSS SRN WI.
KEPT HIGHER CHANCE POPS MON NGT AND CONFINED LIKELY WORDING TO SRN
HALF OF CWA TUE NGT.  MINIMAL CAPPING MON NGT AND CONSIDERABLE
INSTABILITY JUST OFF THE SURFACE AS MID-LEVELS COOL.  BEST CHANCE
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT AS PAIR OF STRONGER MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN WI IN FASTER WESTERLY FLOW.
ALSO RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET MOVES ACROSS SRN WI TUE
NGT...HOWEVER WEAK LOW LEVEL JET ORIENTATED MORE WLY A NEGATIVE
FACTOR.  STILL WILL BE A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO LINGERING
HIGH PWATS AND THETA-E RIDGE LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH ACROSS NRN
IL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE FLIP-FLOPPING CONTINUES WITH THIS LAST SET
OF SOLUTIONS WITH REGARDS TO FRONTAL PLACEMENT ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  HOWEVER DISREGARDING GFS
OUTLIER SOLUTION...DOES APPEAR TO BE AGREEMENT BTWN LATER NAM
PERIODS AS WELL AS ECMWF AND GEM IN SHOWING MORE UPSTREAM RIDGING
AND STRONGER STEERING WINDS IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS ACROSS THE WRN
GTLAKES ON WED CARRYING INTO THU.  SHORT WAVE RIDGING SPREADS INTO
THE REGION WED NIGHT AND LINGERS THRU THU.  BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING
UP DOWNSTREAM IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WRT CRISTOBAL REMAINING
OFFSHORE AND SPRAWLING RIDGE AXIS FARTHER SOUTHEAST.  HENCE LESS
RAIN CHANCES EARLY IN THIS PERIOD WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE.

FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NEED TO KEEP SMALL POPS FOR
CONVECTION AS LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF ECMWF SHOWING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
OPENING UP IN THE PLAINS AND AFFECTING THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RETURNING.  LAST FEW FRAMES OF THE GEM ALSO
TRENDING TOWARD UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNING LATE IN THE WEEK AS DOES
THE DGEX WHILE CONTINUING TO IGNORE DRIER GFS SOLUTION.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN STUBBORN TO SCATTER TODAY...BUT LATEST RAP
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RETURN TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON. COULD BE SOME
PATCHY FOG OR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING BASED ON LATEST MODELS SOUNDINGS. OPTED TO KEEP CIGS
SCATTERED FOR NOW DUE TO SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN LOW LEVEL
SATURATION.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

MARINE...

A VERY MOIST AIR MASS MAY BRING SOME MORE FOG TO LAKE MICHIGAN
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY MONDAY
THOUGH...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT FOG IN THE NEARSHORE AREAS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MBK


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