Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 131644 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1144 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS FROM EARLIER TODAY HAVE BECOME MORE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WITH THE EAST SEEING
THE MOST SKY COVER. NOT SEEING MUCH WARMING AT 850 MB THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THESE CLOUDS MAY LINGER.

NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ONLY ONES TO SHOW THESE CLOUDS
LINGERING...WITH THE OTHER MODELS DRYING THINGS OUT. WILL ADD MORE
CLOUDS TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS MAY LIMIT
HIGHS A BIT...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND ADJUST DOWNWARD IF NEEDED.
LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED AROUND AND SOUTH OF MILWAUKEE BY MID
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH AND EAST OF THE REGION WILL
PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MVFR/VFR CUMULUS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN SITES...PERHAPS AT MADISON AS WELL. SOME
UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH HOW LONG THEY WILL PERSIST.

NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A LAKE
BREEZE EXPECTED AT MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA BY 21Z SATURDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. ANY LIGHT FOG
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO LOW LYING AREAS...WITH THE WINDS INCREASING.
MAY SEE MORE SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR/VFR DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOP
OR LINGER ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO
AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LAKE BREEZE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE.
WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET AS WELL THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

CLOUDS CLEARING IN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...
WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OVER STATE
BRINGING A DRY DAY.AFTER THE COOL START...SOME UPWARD MODIFICATION
OF 925 MB TEMPS TO 6C TO 7C EAST AND AROUND 8C WEST BY 00Z AS COLD
POOL SHIFTS EAST...SO WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MID TO UPPER 50S LOOK
ON TRACK.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING INTO EASTERN MONTANA/WRN N DAKOTA ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL REACH FAR NRN MN BY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME WEAK
OMEGA WITH APPROACHING TROUGH...BUT LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE WITH
STRONGEST FORCING STAYING WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SHALLOW BUT STRONG INVERSION JUST OFF
THE SURFACE. THIS LEADS TO PATCHY/AREAS OF MAINLY GROUND FOG IN THE
USUAL LOW-LYING RURAL LOCATIONS AND RIVER VALLEYS AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING LATE AHEAD OF WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AS HIGH MOVES EAST SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD
FOG...SUPPORTED BY SREF VSBY PROBABILITY FORECASTS AND MOS
GUIDANCE...AND SHOULD ALSO PREVENT A TEMP DROP THAT COULD PRODUCE
FROST.

SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING EAST OF WI THROUGH THE DAY.
MEANWHILE... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL BE REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. THE
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO SOMEWHAT BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER SOUTHERN WI. PLAN ON INCREASING HIGH AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
SOME SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE MID 60S.

LONG TERM...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING... THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
AN UPPER JET... AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH... AND A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH SOUTHERN WI. THIS COULD BRING A ROUND OF
LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. THE OVERALL MOISTURE LOOKS WEAK AND MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE DRIER TOWARD THE SURFACE THAN ALOFT. LOWERED THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

MONDAY MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... A STRONGER MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH A COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR BETTER CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN WI.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE BACK INTO WISCONSIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE MONDAY AFTERNOON COLD FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO SET UP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH THE
EASTERN HALF UNDER A TROUGH. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

MODELS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
LAKE MICHIGAN INTO SOUTHEAST WI WED NIGHT INTO THU AS THE UPPER
RIDGE/TROUGH AMPLIFY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY
A FEW SPRINKLES TO SOUTHEAST WI. THANKFULLY THE COLDEST AIR WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND DRAW IN SOME
WARMER TEMPS TO SOUTHERN WI. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 70 ON FRIDAY AND A
LITTLE WARMER SATURDAY. LOWERED THE CHANCE FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION
ELEVATED RAIN ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST FORCING WILL BE
OVER NORTHERN WI. FUTURE FORECASTS CAN PROBABLY REMOVE THE MENTION.
THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF NOW KEEPS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STATIONED
OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND STALLS THE UPPER MIDWEST COLD
FRONT OVER MN INSTEAD OF DROPPING RAIN THROUGH SOUTHERN WI. THE GFS
STILL BRINGS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN THROUGH SOUTHERN WI
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

ANY PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL CLEAR TAF SITES BY...OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. SOME CONCERN FOR A RETURN OF PATCHY GROUND FOG
AGAIN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KENW AND KUES. BUT INCREASING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS...WHILE NOT STRONG...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT
WIDESPREAD FOG. WILL KEEP VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD PER MOS
GUIDANCE AND LOW SREF VSBY PROBABILITIES.

MARINE...

NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WAVES IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL SUBSIDE BY MID AFTERNOON AS WINDS CONTINUE TO EASE
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MRC


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