Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
FXUS63 KMKX 282041
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
241 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016
Tonight and Tuesday...Forecast confidence is medium.
A strong 150 knot jet max lifts to the north this evening followed
by a mid level trough axis that moves across southern Wisconsin
tonight. Moderate to strong upper level divergence and 700 mb upward
motion ahead of the trough. Showers will continue this evening. A
narrow band of surface based CAPE of around 300 Joules/KG with
the occluded/cold front will be enough for a mention of
A dry slot will then push across southern Wisconsin late tonight.
Mid and even low levels dry resulting is some sunshine Tuesday. A
little increase in mid level RH during the day. Steep low level
lapse rates should bring mild temperatures, especially southeast.
The steep lapse rates will also cause gusty southwest winds.
Tuesday night through Thursday...Forecast confidence high.
The occluded low over MN will slowly move east while a new round
of cyclogeneis will occur from the Ohio River valley into the
Lower Great Lakes. They both will consolidate over southern
Ontario Canada as a 990 mb low for late Wed night. A trough will
extend back into WI through Fri but weaken over time. The low will
bring clouds and small chances of light rain and snow to srn WI
for Wed-Thu. Temps will remain above normal during this period.
.LONG TERM...Friday through Monday...Forecast confidence medium.
The trough will weaken sufficiently on Fri for a dry forecast
which will be followed by a ridge of high pressure for Sat. The
GFS and WPC then brings an open wave of low pressure across the
region for Sun with chances of light snow and rain. The last two
runs of the ECMWF have produced strong cyclogenesis from the south
central USA into the Great Lakes region for Sun night and Monday.
This is discounted at this time but will watch for trends.
Temps will remain above normal through the weekend.
IFR ceilings will be dominant across the area through about mid
evening. Expect moderate southeast to south winds through this
afternoon with the center of strong low pressure over the eastern
A secondary trough will lift north into southeast Wisconsin this
evening. Showers will continue. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible, especially with the approach of an occluded/cold
front that should exit the southeast around midnight.
Expect improving flight conditions in the wake of the front later
this evening south central and after midnight southeast. A dry slot
with vfr conditions expected Tuesday with breezy southwest winds.
A gale warning for southeast to south wind gusts to 35 knots is in
effect through most of tonight. Expect strong winds and high waves,
with the highest in the northern marine zones.
Winds will shift to the southwest late tonight as an occluded/cold
front moves through. Gusts will likely be at small craft advisory
levels through Tuesday evening.
LM...GALE WARNING until 3 AM CST Tuesday for LMZ643>646.
TONIGHT/Tuesday AND AVIATION/MARINE...Hentz
Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday...Gehring