Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 231455 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
955 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

.UPDATE...

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN THIS MORNING...WITH JUST A TRACE
TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON UNDER EASTERLY WINDS...WITH SLOWLY DECREASING
CLOUDS EXPECTED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL TODAY...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS IN THE SOUTH UNDER A
DEEPER SNOW PACK AND LINGERING CLOUDS...AND ALSO IN THE EAST UNDER
ONSHORE WINDS. FORECAST HIGHS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD CLEAR
THE AREA WEST TO EAST FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
LOWER CIGS WILL HANG ON FOR A WHILE...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY
IMPROVE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. SOME LOWER CLOUDS MAY PERSIST INTO THE
NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...WITH A RETURN TO VFR BY EARLY
MORNING.

LOWER CLOUDS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THESE LOWER CLOUDS
ALONG WITH MAINLY RAINFALL WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE MAIN JET MAX IS PUSHING EAST OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LOCATED BETWEEN THE WEAKENING RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THAT JET...ALONG WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AS WEAKER
JET ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
CONTINUES INTO THE MORNING.  THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING.  THE MAIN
DRIVER OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINS THE MODERATE TO STRONG 850 TO
700 MB FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING THAT PUSHES SOUTHEAST BY
LATE MORNING. MODERATE TO STRONG 700 MB UPWARD MOTION DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF A LONE ROCK TO
RACINE/KENOSHA AREA. THE STRONGEST LIFT DROPS SOUTH OF THE
ILLINOIS BORDER AROUND 8 AM. THEREFORE HEADLINE TIMING LOOKS GOOD.
850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION AS MAINLY
SNOW. AS THIS IS HAPPENING THE DRY FEED OF AIR CONTINUES IN THE
LOW LEVELS FROM THE HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WAS CONTINUING TO CAUSE PRECIP ON THE NORTH END OF THE RADAR
RETURNS FROM REACHING THE GROUND.

LATER TONIGHT AN UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY PUSHES TOWARD SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WITH UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MODERATE 700 MB DOWNWARD
MOTION.

700/850MB LAYERS DRY TONIGHT AND 925 MB DRIES A BIT LATER...SO SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LINGERING LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FEE AND ASSOCIATED DRY SE FEED
WILL DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. STRONG VORT MAX PUSHES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW INTO SRN IA/NRN MO.
850 LOW LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL TO OUR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. THE NAM HAS COME AROUND TO A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
PRECIP INTO SRN WI...IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF. SO WITH
THAT...POPS CAN BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SW CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. BY THAT TIME PRECIP EXPECTED TO IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
MAIN SURGE STILL ON TRACK WITH LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
SHORTWAVE TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND LLJ AXIS ORIENTS QUITE
FAVORABLY INTO THE CWA TO SUPPORT A DECENT INFLUX OF MOISTURE.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A LITTLE BETTER SIGNAL FOR ELEVATED CAPE SO
WILL RETAIN THE THUNDER MENTION IN THE GRIDS. BEST DCVA IN THE
6-12Z TIME FRAME WITH SOME PROGS RAMPING UP THE SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET TO 65 KNOTS.

WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST WHILE SECONDARY WAVE DROPS INTO
MN. THIS LATTER FEATURE MOVES INTO CNTRL MN BY END OF DAY. WEAK
COLD ADVECTION PROGGD BY THE NAM AND GFS DURG THE AFTN WHILE THE
ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW PRECIP
REDEVELOPING WITH EXTENSION OF THE MN SHORTWAVE AND SPEED MAX
ROUNDING BASE OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
AREA DRY. WILL HAVE SOME SMALL POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE FEATURES
BUT KEEP IT IN THE FORM OF LIQUID.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...LOW
THE GFS AND NAM BRING A SECONDARY LOW NORTHEAST FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO EITHER LWR MI OR ERN LAKES...VARYING
SOLUTIONS ON THIS. THE GFS IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE NAM WHICH
SHOWS DECENT PRECIP AND THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS ALL PRECIP SOUTHEAST
OF WI. WILL GO WITH THE SUPERBLEND POPS AND MENTION SOME PRECIP.
WITH 850 CAA CONTINUING THIS PERIOD WILL MENTION A MIX AS 850
TEMPS DROP BLO 0C. IN ADDITION THIS WILL OCCUR WITH THE AID OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE/850 TROUGH AXIS
SLIDES INTO SRN WI. ALSO MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WILLS SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT.
AGAIN WILL USE A BLENDED APPROACH WITH RESPECT TO POPS AS THE
ECMWF SHOWS THIS AS A DRY SCENARIO AND THE GFS HAS ALMOST 0.10
LIQUID. 850/825 TEMPS ON THE CHILLIER SIDE SO WILL HAVE TO MENTION
SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE GFS AND GEM ARE SLOWER WITH A SECONDARY SHARP MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS SWINGING ACROSS WI WHILE THE ECMWF IS QUICKER TO SHIFT
THIS EAST INTO THE ERN LAKES REGION. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THAT THE COLD THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE. THE GFS SHOWS
NEGATIVE TEENS CELSIUS AT 850 MILLIBARS WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
THERMAL TROUGH BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTING EAST QUICKER AND SOME LOW LEVEL WAA KICKING IN. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH TRAJ ON THE GFS SCENARIO FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL.
NEVERTHELESS EXPECTING BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH 925 TEMPS SUGGESTING
READINGS IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS.

SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC UPPER NORTHERLY FLOW. IN THE LOW LEVELS
SURFACE/850 HIGH WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST SO A RETURN FLOW AND A
MODIFICATION OF THE CHILLY TEMPS OF FRIDAY. GFS SLOWER TO MODIFY
DUE TO THE LONGER LASTING EFFECTS FROM THE THERMAL TROUGH THAN THE
ECMWF. EXPECT HIGHS TO GET BACK INTO THE 40S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
UPPER FLOW FLATTENS WITH ARRIVAL OF NEXT SHORTWAVE. ECMWF AND GFS
BOTH SHOW QUICK HITTING SYSTEM THIS PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING
MORE WAA INDUCED QPF SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. GFS IS ESSENTIALLY VICE
VERSA. SUPERBLEND POPS USED WHICH HAS SOME POPS THIS PERIOD.
P-TYPE WISE WILL GO WITH A MIX SAT NGT AND ALL LIQUID SUNDAY.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE...TO AT TIMES HEAVY
SNOW...WILL AFFECT AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LONE ROCK TO
KENOSHA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE DRIER
AIR TO THE NORTHEAST WAS CAUSING CEILINGS TO REMAIN VFR TOWARD
SHEBOYGAN. THE MAJORITY OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL PUSH SOUTH
OF THE ILLINOIS BORDER AREA AROUND 8 AM CDT.

EXPECT CEILINGS TO RISE DURING THE DAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST.  SKIES SHOULD CLEAR MOST AREAS LATER TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION...HENTZ
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COLLAR


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