000
FXUS63 KMKX 232026
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
325 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

POLAR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL TRAVERSE TO WRN WI BY 12Z
FRIDAY. MOS GUIDANCE AND 2 METER TEMPS SUGGEST LOW TEMPS WILL BE MID
TO UPPER 30S WITH ONLY PATCHY FROST EXPECTED. GOING FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD WITH NO FROST ADVISORY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHTER
WINDS. 925 TEMPS PLAY OUT WITH 7C IN THE EAST AND AROUND 10C IN THE
WEST. GOING WITH MID 50S LAKESIDE AND MID 60S AT INLAND LOCALES.

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

LINGERING RIDGE WL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES FOR A PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.  THESE CONDITIONS WL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF QUICKLY BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN FROM
UPSTREAM WARM AIR ADVECTION. AS LAND BREEZE DEVELOPS...COOLER
TEMPERATURES WL DEVELOP OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF LAKESHORE
COUNTIES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID-UPPER 30S. MORE CLOUDINESS IN
WESTERN CWA SHOULD PRECLUDE COOLER TEMPS. WL ADD PATCHY FROST
MENTION TO INLAND EASTERN AREA FOR LATER FRI NIGHT.

SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWING A LITTLE MORE RIDGING PERSISTING OVER
SRN WI FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  UPSTREAM LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSES
ON SRN MN/NRN IA FRI NGT AND PIVOTS NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST IA LATE
IN THE NIGHT.  DESPITE LOW LEVELS REMAINING DRY...WESTERN CWA MAY
GET CLIPPED BY MCS THAT WL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SAT MRNG.
BAROCLINIC ZONE THEN LINGERS OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.

LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FEED FROM THE EAST AND NEARBY RIDGING SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO EASTERN AREAS REMAINING DRY FOR MOST OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.  WEAK RIPPLES MOVING THROUGH EXPANDING RIDGE WL THREATEN
WESTERN AREAS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

DIFFERENCES PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD BETWEEN THE GFS AND
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
PIECES OF ENERGY BEING EJECTED FROM DEEPENING UPSTREAM TROFING OVER
WRN CONUS.  GFS ALSO HAD BEEN MORE PROGRESSIVE IN WEAKENING DEEP LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST CONUS BUT WITH 12Z RUN...HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SLOWER ECMWF. HENCE WL BE LEANING TOWARD DRIER
AND ULTIMATELY WARMER SCENARIO /ECMWF/ FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD.
WITH THIS SOLUTION...MORE AMPLIFIED HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTS MORE OF
WRN GTLAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND AGAIN WED INTO THU.

BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE TUE INTO WED WHEN
PUSH OF WARM AIR COINCIDES WITH PASSING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE.  WARM
AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FOR WED AND THU WITH LIMITED COLUMN
MOISTURE. CAPPING INVERSION DEVELOPS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPS WARMING TO SUMMER LEVELS BY
THU. HOWEVER DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WL NEED TO CARRY TOKEN SCHC POPS
IN OTHER PERIODS WITH REGARD TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS/...MVFR CLOUD DECK GRADUALLY ERODING FROM THE
NORTH...BECOMING SCATTERED AND EVENTUALLY CLEAR BY MID EVENING CWA
WIDE. SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS TONIGHT EASING THE NORTH
WINDS..THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY IN THE EAST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE ON FRIDAY WITH A MUCH LIGHTER WIND
REGIME AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.MARINE...PERSISTENT AND GUSTY NNE WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN HIGH
WAVES. GRADIENT EXPECTED TO VERY SLOWLY RELAX A BIT INTO THE EVENING
BUT THE WAVES WILL BE SLOW TO EASE. PONDERED AN EXTENSION TO THE
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE BUT WILL LET EVENING SHIFT REASSESS TRENDS WITH
RESPECT TO WAVE CESSATION BASED ON WINDS FINALLY ABTE SOME. FOR
NOW...GOING END TIMES ARE PLAUSIBLE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ644>646.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ643.

&&

.CONFIDENCE...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MEDIUM.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MEDIUM.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MEDIUM.

$$

VERY SHORT TERM AND AVIATION/MARINE...PC
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...MBK