Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
FXUS63 KMKX 190213
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
913 PM CDT TUE OCT 18 2016
Little to adjust in the forecast, with only a slight lowering of
minimum temperatures. Otherwise forecast looks on track.
VFR conditions and light winds expected overnight and through the
day Wednesday under high pressure. Increasing moisture will bring
mid-level SCT-BKN clouds late Wednesday morning and into the
No major concerns over the next 24 to 36 hours. Will still be
looking at wave heights approaching Small Craft Advisory levels
Thursday/Thursday night as north winds increase with the
tightening gradient between low pressure lifting up the Ohio River
Valley and broad high pressure building in from the Plains.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 226 PM CDT TUE OCT 18 2016/
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY - Confidence...High
A quiet period with a much drier airmass taking hold. Surface front
has shifted and a drier west/northwest flow has dropped dew points
back to more seasonal levels. A surface ridge will shift east and
allow for lighter winds later this evening right into Wednesday.
925 temps will still be in the 10-13c range on Wednesday so
expecting more 60s for highs. Cold front with a little more teeth to
it will hold off to our northwest. The mid level flow will be swift
from the wsw and this will bring a couple ripples into the area
especially into the afternoon. Bufkit soundings show moisture
increasing aoa 12k ft. So may see more mid level clouds increasing
as the day wears on into parts of the area.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.
Rather deep troughing will dig through the Mid/Upper Mississippi
Valley during this period. The bulk of the low level cyclogenesis
stays well south of Wisconsin, but some of the guidance has the
nrn portion of the light precip shield clipping far southeast
Wisconsin. The column is still looking pretty dry, so won`t be
surprised if we pull this light rain chance out in the near
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...Forecast confidence is high.
We should have a fairly quiet stretch of weather during this
period. As the trough passes by to the east, a thermal trough will
bring our coldest temps on Friday. We should see some frost around
the area Fri morning as sfc high pressure provides light winds
and mostly clear skies.
Warm advection pushes in Friday night into Saturday as large scale
ridging aloft over the middle U.S. slides east. Moisture will
remain fairly low and there`s some potential for light showers or
sprinkles as this WAA pushes through. Otherwise, look for mild
temperatures and dry conditions Saturday through Monday. Friday
highs will only be in the lower 50s, but warming in the mid 50s to
lower 60s into early next week.
TUESDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.
The long range guidance is in some agreement that we`ll see our
next organized system approach the area by this time with rain
spreading in later on Tuesday and being somewhat unsettled through
the remainder of next week.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...Surface high will draw closer tonight with
lighter wind regime setting up. Airmass quite dry. Just a few cu
popped up in nrn and ern cwa. These will dissipate diurnally. Only
other clouds expected look to be on Wednesday and this would be of
the mid level variety as wsw mid/upper flow carries some moisture
towards srn WI.
MARINE...North winds will be increasing a bit Thursday into
Thursday night. At this time it appears the wind gusts will be below
small craft criteria however waves could reach small craft criteria
closer to the Illinois border.
TONIGHT/Wednesday AND AVIATION/MARINE...Collar
Wednesday NIGHT THROUGH Tuesday...Davis