Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 092031
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
331 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING...AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTS INTO THE
LOWER 20 KNOT RANGE ARE EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY EVENING...WITH PASSING
MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE MODERATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. STEADY WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD OVERNIGHT...REMAINING IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST...AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES.

THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS.
STRONG 850 MB TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE FIELDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...THOUGH ARE NOT COMPLETELY SATURATED.

THUS...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MORE DISJOINTED THAN IN A SOLID BAND.
CONTINUED HIGH POPS THROUGH THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
DURING THE MORNING...EXITING THE FAR SOUTHEAST IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR AND
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO THE AREA. 925 MB TEMPERATURES WITH ANOTHER
DECENT MIXING DAY SHOULD BRING HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF WI THU NT.
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LEAD TO COOL TEMPS AND SOME FROST.
SWLY WINDS AND LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO THEN PREVAIL ON
FRI AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE MOST ORGANIZED LIFT AND
MOISTURE WILL BE MORE OVER NRN AND CENTRAL WI SO ONLY HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE NRN CWA. THE WARM ADVECTION AND SOME SUNSHINE
WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 60S WITH ANY LAKE BREEZE REMAINING VERY
CLOSE TO THE SHORE.

A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT TO THEN STALL OVER SRN WI FRI NT...BUT
THEN MOVE NWD AS A WARM FRONT FOR SAT AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES TO SRN MN AND NRN IA BY 00Z SUN. THIS CORRESPONDS
TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING WSWLY FLOW FROM THE PREVIOUS NWLY
FLOW. WELL ORGANIZED LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SHOULD BRING LGT TO MDT RAINFALL TO SRN WI WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY FOR FAR SE WI WHICH COULD STAY DRIER LONGER. THE SLY
FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE
60S INLAND BUT A STRONGER LAKE BREEZE WILL KEEP THE LAKE AREAS IN
THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO
MEDIUM.

THE BROAD SFC LOW WILL PASS AS A N-S SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT AND
DO SO AT A SLOW PACE. CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUING RAINS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BUT ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN
AND ERN CWA. NLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY
BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS SUN
NT AND MON AM. FORECASTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM AROUND 1
INCH TOWARD CENTRAL WI TO 2 INCHES IN FAR SRN WI.

A LARGE POLAR TROUGH WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH TUE NT WITH VERY COOL TEMPS AND SMALL CHANCES OF SNOW AND
RAIN. POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WELL PREVAIL TUE NT AND SHIFT EWD FOR
WED WITH SLY WINDS DEVELOPING AND MILDER TEMPS.


&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL SUNSET...WITH SUSTAINED
SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO MOST OF TONIGHT IN THE 13 TO 14 KNOT RANGE. LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT TO AROUND 14Z
THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 40 TO 45 KNOT RANGE ARE EXPECTED AT
THE 1500 TO 2000 FOOT ABOVE GROUND LEVEL AREA DURING THIS TIME.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT...LINGERING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS
THURSDAY MORNING...ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS.

WINDS WILL VEER NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 14Z THURSDAY ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO BECOME
SOUTHWEST EARLY TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE
INVERSION ABOVE THE LAKE SURFACE WILL LIMIT MIXING TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

HOWEVER...GUSTS NEAR THE SHORE SHOULD REACH 22 KNOTS UNTIL SUNSET.
THEY SHOULD THEN REACH 25 KNOTS TONIGHT...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL EXIST JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. DESPITE THE INVERSION OVER THE
WATER...THESE GUSTS SHOULD STILL FREQUENTLY OCCUR. WAVES SHOULD
BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...HIGHEST TOWARD
THE OPEN WATERS.

WINDS WILL VEER WEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. WAVES SHOULD SUBSIDE AS
WINDS BECOME OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL THEN SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...WILL
LINGER UNTIL SUNSET. VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGING FROM
20 TO 30 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.

VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
THURSDAY...EXCEPT IN FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON MAY GUST TO 20 TO 25 MPH. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
EXPECTED VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE
FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GEHRING



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