Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
000
FXUS63 KMKX 140935
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
335 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

LINGERING THERMAL TROF AND LOW LEVEL RH CONTINUES TO GENERATE
SCT-BKN CIGS ACROSS ERN WI WHERE MORE WIDESPREAD CLEARING HAS
BEEN LOCATED SINCE LATE THU EVE. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
PERSISTENT STRATUS FIELD OVER WRN AND MUCH OF CENTRAL WI
OVERNIGHT.

HOWEVER...INDICATIONS THAT CLOUD FIELD THINNING OVER NW WI LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. CLOUD EDGE IN FAR SW WI ALSO SLOWLY ERODING. 00Z
KMPX SOUNDING SHOWING CLOUDS FAIRLY THIN...LESS THAN 1K FEET
THICK. EXPECT LOW LEVEL RH TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY THIN TODAY WITH
HELP FROM APPROACHING SHORT WAVE RIDGING. HENCE WL CONTINUE MORE
OPTIMISTIC SKY COVER OUTLOOK WITH MOST AREAS P TO M/SUNNY IN THE
AFTN.

DESPITE SUNSHINE...COLD AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED WITH 925H TEMPS
REMAINING AROUND -10C. ANOTHER DAY WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO GET
ABV 30.

LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL MORE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OUT
LATE TONIGHT DUE TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. FEW
WESTERN LOCATIONS MAY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FIRST 500 MB VORTICITY
MAXIMUM SLIDING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE SECOND SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE
AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
SATURATION THROUGH A DEEP LAYER MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ABOUT
A 6 HOUR WINDOW FOR ROBUST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN DEEP
DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE.

THUS...CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARD HIGH POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...AS
WELL AS TRENDING UPWARD WITH POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND DOWNWARD
SUNDAY MORNING.

QPF AMOUNTS AROUND 0.15 INCHES WITH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS AROUND
17 TO 19 TO 1 SUGGEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...HIGHEST
IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW.

MODELS SHOW MORE 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA SHIFTING EAST THROUGH
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE PROFILES ON
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. LEFT IN LOW POPS...AS DEEP DENDRITE ZONE
AND SOME MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.

COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD. 925 MB TEMPERATURE
FIELDS SUGGESTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND
LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF BRING A 500 MB LOW SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
MONDAY...THEN EAST NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEASTERN CANADA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. LEFT IN LOW POPS FOR MONDAY...AND MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
FAR EAST...AS 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA CONTINUE TO SHIFT THROUGH
THE REGION WITH MODEST MOISTURE PROFILES.

REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS FAIRLY DRY...AS DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION PER GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS. MAIN STORY WILL BE ANOTHER
SURGE OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION MONDAY...LINGERING THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEK. COLD AIR ADVECTION MONDAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES MAY MODIFY
LATER IN THE WEEK...BUT REMAIN QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY THIN TODAY AS SHORT
WAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO WI. MOST IF ANY CIGS TODAY SHOULD BE
PREDOMINANTLY VFR HOWEVER MAY BE A FEW MVFR CIGS WITH FLURRIES
AROUND FOR A TIME THIS MORNING IN THERMAL TROF.

&&

.MARINE...

FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS LIKELY THIS MRNG. APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND GUSTINESS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. NEXT THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER STRONG CDFNT PASSES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WOOD



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.