Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 211751 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1251 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON...ON SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD
DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON. LAKE BREEZE SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE
ONSHORE AS WELL. 925 MB MODEL TEMPERATURE FIELDS SUGGEST HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE LAKE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH AROUND 80 OR IN THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE LAKE...THEN FALL
WITH ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOST OF TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. SOME DIURNAL
CUMULUS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON...LINGERING UNTIL AROUND
SUNSET. SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH LAKE BREEZE SHOULD REACH MILWAUKEE
AND KENOSHA BY AROUND 21Z MONDAY.

SOUTH WINDS MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z TUESDAY TO ALLOW
FOR MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT KENOSHA AND PERHAPS MADISON AND
WAUKESHA. UNCERTAIN WITH THIS...SO ONLY KEPT IN KENOSHA TAF FOR
NOW. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP TUESDAY...WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

COLD FRONT WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TAF SITES BETWEEN 23Z TUESDAY AND 06Z WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WITH ANY STORMS...ALONG WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES. USED VICINITY THUNDER WORDING IN MILWAUKEE TAF FOR
NOW.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF
PORT WASHINGTON. A FEW GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED...BUT NOT
FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WAVES SHOULD BUILD TO
2 TO 4 FEET BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN SUBSIDE TONIGHT WITH
WEAKENING WINDS.

MAY SEE FOG DEVELOP TONIGHT AND LINGER TUESDAY...WITH DEW POINTS
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. DENSE FOG MAY AN ISSUE...THOUGH NOT
CONVINCED YET GIVEN THE WINDS REMAINING IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE
OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.BEACHES...

MODERATE SWIM RISK WILL CONTINUE AT BEACHES IN SHEBOYGAN COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND BUILDING
WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

ONE MORE QUIET AND WARM DAY UNTIL THINGS GET INTERESTING BEGINNING
LATE TONIGHT.

THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING WILL SAG SOUTH AND EAST
AS A STRONG JET MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR.  A WEAKER JET WILL PUSH FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN IOWA BY THIS EVENING.  THIS BRINGS STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING...AND INTO MUCH OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT AND
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY.

A 55 KNOT 700 MB WEST JET MAX MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
MINNESOTA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY...WHILE THE 40 KNOT 850 MB JET MAX
MOVES TOWARD WESTERN WISCONSIN AROUND MIDNIGHT...WEAKENING AS IT
PUSHES ACROSS MUCH OF WISCONSIN.  BOTH THE 850 AND 700 MB DEW
POINTS ARE VERY HIGH.  THIS INCREASES BOTH THE 700 MB AND 850 MB
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE STRONG VALUES ARE
TO THE NORTH.

A STRONG CAP DEVELOPS AT 800 TO 750 MB THIS AFTERNOON AS 14 DEG
CELSIUS 700 MB TEMPERATURE MOVE TOWARD SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.  THE NAM
WEAKENS THIS CAP JUST BEFORE SUNRISE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...AND ELEVATED CAPE RISES TO AROUND 2500 JOULES/KG.

THEREFORE WE MAY GET AN UPSTREAM MCS DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT WITH THE CORFIDI DOWNSHEAR VECTOR AT
315 DEGREES/50 KNOTS BY SUNRISE NORTHWEST OF MADISON.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. STRONG CAPPING IN 800-700MB LEVEL
WITH TEMPS OF 16-20C WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER THROUGH
AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN WI. CLOUD COVER IS THE
UNCERTAINTY...BUT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR AT LEAST FILTERED
SUNSHINE THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
NORTHERN WI.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPS TO PEAK
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER
70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LAND IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...JUST
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CAPE COULD BE AS HIGH AS 4000 J/KG OVER
SOUTHERN WI DUE TO VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BULK SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED. AS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS INTO SOUTHEAST WI...THE CONVERGENCE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER TO OVERCOME THE STRONG CAP AND LEAD TO
MULTICELL CLUSTERS OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED SEVERE
WIND AND HAIL. SPC HAS SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHEAST IL IN THE DAY 2
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO ALMOST 2 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN WI
ON TUESDAY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. NOT
EXPECTING FLASH FLOODING SINCE STORMS WILL BE MOVING ALONG...BUT
MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

DRY AND COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 70S...COOLEST NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE OVER
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...BUT
PRECIP WITH THESE SHORTWAVES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF WI ALONG THE 850MB TEMP GRADIENT.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CREEP INTO
WI WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AS THE SURFACE
HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING LOWER CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN INCREASING CHANCES ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVES AND
THEREFORE PRECIP COVERAGE WILL STILL HAVE TO BE WORKED OUT.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

MOIST AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA MAY BRING MVFR FOG/HAZE AROUND
SUNRISE BUT SOME PATCHY IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND
LOW AREAS.

SHOULD SEE MORE SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH THESE WOULD NOT HAVE MUCH VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT DUE TO AN
INCREASING CAP AROUND 5 TO 7 THSD FT.  THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WITH A MCS POSSIBLY DROPPING FROM THE NORTHWEST JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE.

MARINE...

WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND LINGER INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. DEW POINTS IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70 WILL PUSH OUT OVER THE COOL WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. SOME DENSE FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY GENERATE HIGH WAVES. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MRC



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