Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 151653 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1153 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2014

.UPDATE...

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND DRY AIR OVER THE AREA. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF WISCONSIN WILL REMAIN THERE. THERE
SHOULD BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. HIGHS LOOK ON TRACK IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
INLAND. LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON SHOULD HOLD HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S NEAR THE LAKE.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...LINGERING UNTIL EARLY EVENING. LAKE BREEZE WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD REACH MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA BY 20Z THIS
AFTERNOON.

SOME MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO MVFR FOG AT
MADISON AND KENOSHA BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z SATURDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY...ON LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS. SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EXIST IN THE
MORNING...BUT LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AS COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. MAY USE
VICINITY WORDING IN MILWAUKEE TAF AFTER 21Z SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY. IT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH INFLUENCE TO KEEP THINGS
DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT
AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.  OTHER THAN THE
POSITIVE MOISTURE FLUX...THERE IS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING
OR TRIGGERING MECHANISMS FOR PRECIP TONIGHT.  TRIMMED POPS BACK TO
SOUTHWEST OF MADISON ONLY...AND MAINLY AFTER 4AM. MOST OF THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE OR NO QPF TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
STAYING WELL SOUTHWEST OF WISCONSIN. THERE IS ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AND COMBINED WITH THE RETURNING MOISTURE IT MAY FIRE OFF SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE AREA OF CONCERN.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE
MORNING DUE TO THE INCREASING MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN WI.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GO FROM AROUND 0.5 THIS MORNING TO 1.5 BY
MIDDAY SATURDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WITH
UP TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
DIURNAL HEATING. THERE IS NO STRONG FORCING FOR PRECIP...JUST
INSTABILITY...SO JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING SOUTH THROUGH WI. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
MODELS ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT INTO SOUTHERN WI...ALTHOUGH THE
ECMWF APPEARS A BIT FASTER THAN THE NAM AND GFS. THE FRONT WILL
ARRIVE IN THE NORTHERN MKX FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING AND THEN
STALL OVER FAR SOUTHERN WI AFTER DARK SAT NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE IN CENTRAL WI AND FOND DU LAC AND
SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING DUE TO PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING...BETTER SHEAR /30 KT/ AND HIGHER CAPE. SPC HAS THIS AREA IN
A SEE TEXT TO HIGHLIGHT THE RISK OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN
THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER...HEAVY RAIN IN ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
LIKELY.

LONG TERM...

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST PROFILE IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY.
INCREASED SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. IN ADDITION...NORTHEAST
WINDS OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP LAKESHORE TEMPS EVEN COOLER. LEANED
TOWARD LOWER END OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS.

500MB SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW AND COINCIDENT SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT
ACROSS CENTRAL IL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THE
SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING A BIT AND WRAPPING PRECIP INTO SOUTHEAST
WI SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS IA AND IL...AND SOUTHERN WI MIGHT BE ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF SOME OF THE SHOWERS. MINIMAL THUNDER CHANCES FOR
US.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

ANOTHER 500MB LOW WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WED. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL LEAD TO A FEW
STRONGER STORMS MAYBE ON TUESDAY...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS LOW. THIS SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME MUCH-NEEDED RAIN
TO SOUTHERN WI.

AN 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN WI THU AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA AND BECOME A TRIGGER FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...BUT MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24HRS.  LOOK
FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO KICK IN DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AT
KMKE AND POSSIBLY KENW A BIT LATER.  OTHERWISE LIGHT...VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DAVIS


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