Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
FXUS63 KMKX 120922
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
322 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...This section will be added shortly.
.FRIDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium to High
Dry weather will likely prevail through the daytime hours Friday
under strong high pressure. High temps are forecast to be 10 or so
degrees below normal.
A weak shortwave may then bring a quick round of light snow to
southern Wisconsin Friday evening into Friday night. There is
somewhat better agreement among models with this wave, so
increased pops a little. Main concern is that these weak and quick
moving waves with relatively small areas of snow are often hard
to pin down where exactly the snow will fall. Won`t take much of a
shift north or south to miss parts of the area. Other than
stronger GFS solution, majority of models suggest just a dusting
to half an inch where it does snow. Could see 1 to 2 inches in
areas per the GFS.
.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...Forecast Confidence...High
High pressure is expected to bring dry weather for Saturday and
Sunday. Temps should be right around normal for mid-January.
.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium
Increasing confidence that low pressure will move through the
region early next week, bringing widespread precip to the forecast
area. Models continue to agree fairly well with the general track
of the low, showing a warm layer aloft could bring a mix with
freezing rain and sleet for a time before precip transitions to
There are still some timing differences among models. A model
blend brings the bulk of precip through later Sunday night through
Monday night. Best chance for mixed precip looks to be at the
onset of precip Sunday night through Monday morning. Mainly rain
would be expected after that, with some chance for a changeover
back to snow late in the system. Current setup suggests little if
any snow accumulation with this transition.
Depending on model timing, the precip should wind down at some
point on Tuesday. Looks dry then Wednesday per the ECMWF and
Canadian, though the GFS brings a low through with some rain and
snow. Went with some low pops, giving a nod to the GFS solution.
Temps should be above normal through the first half of next week.
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/ and MARINE...These sections will be added
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning for LMZ645-646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM CST early this morning for
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Gehring
Friday THROUGH Wednesday...DDV