288
FXUS63 KMKX 300241
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
941 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers exiting the area, dry conditions through Tuesday.

- Above normal temps likely through Thursday, cooling off
  towards normal this weekend.

- Another round of showers and possibly a rumble of thunder
  Tuesday night. A stronger system with additional showers and
  thunderstorms Wednesday night through Thursday, possibly
  continuing into Friday.

- A few additional chances for precipitation into the weekend
  and early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 939 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Low pressure across western Wisconsin continues to move
northward this evening. Cloud cover is beginning to lift north
with the low, with areas across far southeastern Wisconsin
already mostly clear as the dry slot moves through the area.
Expecting cloud cover to linger across central Wisconsin through
the early morning, but skies are expected to be mostly clear on
Tuesday with diurnal cumulus possible in the afternoon.

Falkinham

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 356 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Tonight through Tuesday night:

Occluded front is almost through southern Wisconsin, with a few
lingering showers across southeastern Wisconsin almost reaching
the freezing layer and therefore potentially being capable of an
isolated bolt or two of lightning. Showers along this front will
be offshore into Lake Michigan within the next hour. A few
additional pockets of sprinkles are possible tonight around the
back side of low pressure as it propagates northeastward. Cloud
cover tonight may linger longer than initially forecast due to a
combination of moisture at mid levels and a slower progression
of low pressure northward. Westerly winds will bring in cooler
temperatures overnight, with lows in the lower 40s.

Clearing skies are expected going into Tuesday morning, with a
few diurnal cumulus clouds developing Tuesday afternoon. Expect
highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with the lowest
temperatures close to the remnants of low pressure in central to
southeastern Wisconsin. Light westerly winds continue through
Tuesday, although a lake breeze may develop across the lakeshore
counties during the late afternoon hours and bring in lower
temperatures.

Tuesday night, winds shift southerly to southeasterly as low
pressure approaches from the northern Great Plains. Modeling is
in agreement that this low will also propagate into northern
Wisconsin, leading to scattered showers across the area and
perhaps an isolated thunderstorm in southwestern Wisconsin.
Showers move out into Wednesday morning. Expect lows in the mid
50s.

MH

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 356 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Wednesday through Monday:

A slower progression of the next low pressure system is
indicated on the major models, leading to expected dry
conditions throughout the day Wednesday. Temperatures rising
into the lower 70s are therefore expected. A warm frontal
feature pushing northward into southern Wisconsin Wednesday
night from a developing low in the central Plains will yield the
next chances for precipitation. High pressure building into the
Southeast during the same time frame will allow for warm
temperatures to continue to push into southern Wisconsin and
lends credence to the solutions indicating a farther north
placement of this warm front. This primes the environment for
potential severe weather on Thursday.

Severe threat on Thursday remains conditional. 12Z runs indicate
southern Wisconsin remaining in the warm sector throughout
Thursday, with a cold frontal passage overnight. Convection that
fires in the warm sector or a faster cold front would enhance
the threat, while the overall environment remains marginal. PWAT
values above 1.25 inch (plenty of moisture) compete with bulk
shear values of 30 to 40 kt (marginal) and CAPE values around
500 J/kg (relatively weak). Will continue to monitor as the
event approaches.

Precipitation may linger into Friday, with the frontal boundary
stalling over the region as low pressure occludes and pushes
northward. Temperatures fall back to normal ranges for the
season, with westerly winds continuing through Friday night.
Expect cold front to push eastward out of the region Friday
night, with potentially dry conditions going into Saturday.
However, an additional shortwave looks to impact the region
starting Sunday and potentially continuing through Monday, so
continued chances for precipitation and perhaps a thunderstorm
or two linger into early next week.

MH

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 939 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the TAF
period as the low pressure across the Upper Peninsula of
Michigan continues to move northwards. Low level clouds around
3-4 kft associated with the low level wrap around moisture from
the low pressure are present across southern Wisconsin, but are
expected to lift northward overnight which will lead to
clearing skies across southern Wisconsin. Mostly clear skies on
Tuesday are expected, with diurnal cumulus development possible
in the afternoon. Winds will be out of the west to southwest
during the day on Tuesday as a surface ridge moves across
southern Wisconsin.

Falkinham

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 356 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Areas of dense fog are expected across the northern half of the
Lake into late this evening as southeasterly winds continue. As
winds shift southwesterly, expect fog to dissipate. In addition,
frontal passage through nearshore regions is producing brief
gusts up to 23 kt, diminishing quickly into this evening.

Low pressure continues to lift toward Lake Superior from
northwestern Wisconsin tonight, with winds shifting to
southwesterly and weakening as low pressure begins to fill.
Expect southwesterly winds to continue through Tuesday, shifting
to southeasterly and increasing Tuesday night as low pressure
approaches the area from the northern Great Plains. A few
thunderstorms are possible Tuesday night across the southern
half of the lake. Winds shift back to southwesterly and diminish
into Wednesday afternoon as low pressure lifts northward.

MH

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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